Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Market Close: Major Indices Close Higher for the Day and Week

Record Highs for S&P 500 and Dow Jones as Indices Rally
Major indices closed higher today, continuing their upward momentum for the sixth consecutive week. The Nasdaq led the gains, while the Russell 2000 experienced a slight decline but remains positive for the week.

Closing Numbers:

• Dow Industrial Average: +36.86 points (+0.09%) at 43,275.91
• S&P 500: +23.20 points (+0.40%) at 5,864.67
• Nasdaq Composite: +115.94 points (+0.63%) at 18,489.55
• Russell 2000: -4.76 points (-0.21%) at 2,276.09

Weekly Performance:

• Dow: +0.96%
• S&P 500: +0.85%
• Nasdaq: +0.80%
• Russell 2000: +1.85%

Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average set new record highs this week. The Nasdaq Composite surged more than 100 points, while the Russell 2000 edged down slightly after a week of outperformance.

Market Movers:
A significant boost came from Netflix (NFLX), which gained 11.1% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and guidance, positively impacting the broader market and pushing the S&P 500’s communication services sector up by 0.9%. Other notable sectors included real estate (+0.7%), utilities (+0.6%), and information technology (+0.5%).

The financial sector remained flat, hindered by an earnings-related decline in Dow component American Express (AXP), which fell 3.2% despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 EPS and guidance.

Energy Sector Declines:
Energy stocks dropped 0.4% as oil prices fell below $70.00 per barrel, with WTI crude futures settling at $68.62/bbl.

Market Rates Influence:
The upward trend in equities was also aided by a drop in market rates. Today’s economic data showed September Housing Starts at 1.354 million and Building Permits at 1.428 million, indicating above-consensus starts but some weakness in permits.

• The 10-year yield settled down two basis points at 4.07% for the week.
• The 2-year yield decreased four basis points today but was up one basis point for the week at 3.95%.

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Nasdaq Composite: +23.2%
• S&P 500: +23.0%
• S&P Midcap 400: +15.0%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +14.8%
• Russell 2000: +12.3%

Economic Data Summary:

• September Housing Starts: 1.354 million (revised from 1.361 million)
• September Building Permits: 1.428 million (revised from 1.470 million)

The key takeaway indicates that single-unit starts and permits varied across regions after showing broad growth in August.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow remains unchanged 3.4% for the third quarter

• Strong growth in the third quarter expected

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -10.1 percent to -9.8 percent.

US September housing starts 1.354m vs 1.350m expected

• September housing construction figures reveal a slight downtrend

• Prior was 1.356m
• Starts -0.5% vs +9.6% prior
• Building permits 1.428m vs 1.460m expected
• Permits -2.9% vs +4.9% prior

US housing had been on the comeback trail but that may be in jeopardy as 30-year rates have risen 50 basis points from the September low. Starts are down 0.7% y/y.

Earnings Schedule for Next Week

The upcoming earnings season heats up with several major companies set to report their financial results. Here’s a detailed look at the earnings releases scheduled for next week:

Monday (After Close)

• SAP (SAP)
• Nucor (NUE)
• Logitech (LOGI)
• Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

Tuesday (Before Open)

• Verizon (VZ)
• General Motors (GM)
• 3M (MMM)
• RTX (RTX)
• Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
• GE Aerospace (GE)
• Lockheed Martin (LMT)
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW)

Tuesday (After Close)

• Enphase Energy (ENPH)
• Baker Hughes (BKR)
• Seagate Technology (STX)
• Texas Instruments (TXN)

Wednesday (Before Open)

• Boeing (BA)
• AT&T (T)
• Coca-Cola (KO)
• Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
• CME Group (CME)
• Boston Scientific (BSX)
• General Dynamics (GD)

Wednesday (After Close)

• Tesla (TSLA)
• Lam Research (LRCX)
• IBM (IBM)
• ServiceNow (NOW)
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)
• T-Mobile (TMUS)
• Sands (LVS)

Thursday (Before Open)

• American Airlines (AAL)
• UPS (UPS)
• Southwest Airlines (LUV)
• Nasdaq (NDAQ)
• Carrier (CARR)
• Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Thursday (After Close)

• Dexcom (DXCM)
• Deckers Brands (DECK)
• Western Digital (WDC)
• Skechers (SKX)

Friday (Before Open)

• New York Community Bancorp (NYCB)
• Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
• Piper Sandler (PIPR)

This week’s earnings announcements could provide key insights into market trends and the economic outlook, especially with major players like Tesla, Boeing, and Coca-Cola reporting.

Fed’s Bostic: Neutral policy rate is in the 3-3.50% range

• Comments from the Atlanta Fed President

• Not in a rush to get to neutral
• Will be patient
• We needed to move policy rate because risks had shifted

US Treasury Secretary Yellen warns that Trump’s proposed massive tariffs would surge inflation

• Yellen on China tariffs, and more.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a speech on Thursday, warning about the impact of massive tariff hikes on inflation.

Candidate for President Trump is proposing a blanket 10% tariff on all imported goods, along with tariffs of 60% or higher on imports from China.

In her speech Yellen did not explicitly mention Trump, but outlined the risks associated with “sweeping, untargeted tariffs”:

• an increase in “prices for American families”
• stifling business competition

Yellen spoke at a Council of Foreign Relations conference.

Commodities

Gold Surges to Historic High Above $2,700 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices have soared 0.98% to reach $2,720, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding the upcoming US elections, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. A weakening US Dollar has also contributed to this rally, with the US Dollar Index dropping to 103.45.

Analysts foresee continued gains for Gold, with Citi’s Max Layton predicting that prices could hit $3,000 an ounce within the next 6-12 months. The precious metal has been on a record-setting streak after breaking the $2,700 threshold amid rising uncertainty related to the US election and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. This environment has weighed down US Treasury bond yields and led to a decline in the Greenback, which recently fell to a two-day low after reaching a two-month peak.

Market sentiment remains optimistic as Wall Street experiences modest gains. Geopolitical developments are in the spotlight following Israel’s confirmation of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death, while Hezbollah has indicated an escalation in its confrontation with Israel. US Defense Secretary Austin suggested that Sinwar’s death could open the door for a potential ceasefire. Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Israel to discuss a ceasefire deal.

Gold’s rally has accelerated further with Hezbollah’s threats, pushing prices above $2,700 and to an all-time high of $2,720. Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany, noted that concerns surrounding the US presidential election and expectations of looser monetary policies are contributing factors to the surge.

With major central banks likely to ease policies, the market is reacting to inflation data. UK inflation in September exceeded the Bank of England’s target of 2%, reaching 1.7% YoY, raising speculation about a potential rate cut. The European Central Bank also lowered borrowing costs after inflation dipped below its target.

Consequently, global yields have fallen, providing a favorable backdrop for Gold, which has seen multiple all-time highs this year and is up 30% YTD. Despite the bullish outlook, market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming November meeting, with odds currently at 92.9% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Daily Market Movers: Gold Price Climbs Despite Positive US Data

• US Building Permits for September fell 2.9%, decreasing from 1.47 million to 1.428 million, missing estimates of 1.46 million.
• Housing Starts also dipped 0.6%, from 1.361 million to 1.354 million.
• Market expectations suggest a 48 basis points easing from the Fed by the end of the year.

As geopolitical tensions and economic conditions continue to unfold, Gold remains a focal point for investors seeking stability.

Silver Soars Toward $33.00 as Buyers Surge

Silver prices have surged past $32.00, experiencing a 2.26% increase during the North American session, driven by a drop in US Treasury bond yields. The white metal is currently trading at $32.33, reflecting strong bullish momentum despite traders adjusting their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy easing.

Technical Outlook for Silver Silver’s uptrend remains robust, poised to potentially achieve a yearly record high. Earlier today, the price broke through the $32.00 psychological barrier and extended gains beyond the $32.50 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating bullish momentum, suggesting that buyers are gaining strength.

Key resistance levels are positioned at the year-to-date high of $32.95, followed closely by the $33.00 mark. A breakthrough above these levels could pave the way for a run toward the peak of $35.40, reached on October 1, 2012.

On the downside, if Silver retracts below $32.00, initial support will be found at the October 17 swing low of $31.32. Further backing is expected around the confluence of the October 8 low and the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $30.13.

As the market continues to react to economic indicators and sentiment shifts, Silver remains a key player in the precious metals space, capturing the attention of investors eyeing potential gains.

Baker Hughes US oil rig count

• Rigs at 482 vs 481 a week ago

• Oil rigs +1
• Natural gas rigs -2

EU News

European equities closes up to round out the week

• Closing changes

• Stoxx 600 +0.2%
• German DAX +0.4%
• France CAC +0.4%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.3%
• Spain IBEX +0.1%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4%

Eurozone August current account balance €31.5 billion vs €39.6 billion prior

• Latest data released by the ECB – 18 October 2024

The current account surplus narrowed in August with surpluses recorded for goods (€32 billion) and services (€19 billion) while deficits were recorded for secondary income (€15 billion) and primary income (€4 billion).

UK September retail sales +0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected

• Latest data released by ONS – 18 October 2024

• Prior +1.0%
• Retail sales +3.9% vs +3.2% y/y expected
• Prior +2.5%; revised to +2.3%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Prior +1.1%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +4.0% vs +3.2% y/y expected
• Prior +2.3%; revised to +2.2%

Looking at the details, the improvement in consumption activity is largely driven by higher department store sales (+1.9%) and other non-food store sales (+5.5%).

A quicker return to 2% inflation target on the cards for the ECB?

• That is what the latest ECB survey of professional forecasts (SPF) is suggesting

• 2025 inflation seen at 1.9% (previously 2%)
• 2026 inflation seen at 1.9%
• Long-term inflation, defined as 2029, seen at 2.0%

Deutsche Bank expect faster rate cuts from the European Central Bank to come

• Deutsche Bank on lack of guidance from the ECB

Deutsche Bank with a quickie on what’s to come, saying that the ECB cited progress in the disinflation process and recent weaker-than-expected economic data. While the cut is notable for speeding up the easing cycle with consecutive rate reductions, the ECB remains cautious by not offering specific guidance on future policy moves, which is prudent given the uncertainties ahead. However, Thursday’s decision likely marks a shift towards a quicker normalization of monetary policy.

RBC expect a cascade of European Central Bank rate cuts for the next six months+

• RBC analysts are looking for a long series of European Central Bank rate cuts ahead:

• We expect both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 bps at every meeting until May 2025, contingent on domestic inflation pressures continuing to slow.
• ECB isn’t in a rush
• risks are political … a Trump presidency could force the ECB to keep the currency weak
• 25bps cut every meeting bringing rates to neutral in summer 2025

UBS see plenty more European Central Bank rate cuts, Dec & 2025. Euro has cyclical support

• 2% Deposit rate eyed

• see a December rate cut
• project the deposit rate to hit 2.0% in 2025
• see support for the euro in the months ahead, cyclical factors for FX more broadly including EUR

Asia-Pacific-World News

China National Bureau of Statistics official says economic indicators positive change

• September data was better

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) deputy chief comments:

• September economic indicators showed positive changes
• China’s foreign trade situation this year better than expected
• Foundation for economic recovery not solid yet
• Will speed up implementation of a basket of policy measures

The data from China today began with that showing new home prices fell at the fastest rate since 2015.

China Sept: Retail sales +3.2% y/y (expected +2.5) Industrial production +5.4% y/y (4.6)

• Key Chinese economic data for retail sales, industrial output, investment in September 2024

• the unemployment rate in 31 cities was 5.1%
• January – September property investment was down 10.1% y/y
• January – September infrastructure investment was +4.1%

China Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y (expected 4.5%) 0.9% q/q (expected 1.0%)

• Economic growth data from China for the third quarter of 2024

• Take note that Q2 GDP was revised to +0.5% q/q instead of 0.7%

China September new house prices -5.7% y/y (prior -5.3%)

• Still falling

China home price data for September 2024:

-5.7% y/y

• prior -5.3%

-0.7% m/m

• prior also -0.7%

Home prices fell in

• m/m 66 of 70 cities (prior 67)
• y/y 68 of 70 (prior also 68)

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1274 (vs. estimate at 7.1267)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead

In open market operations (OMOs):

• PBOC injects 108bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%
• 94bn mature today in OMOs
• net injection is 14bn

PBOC says its necessary to increase support to the real economy

• People’s Bank of China:

• Urges financial institutions to act swiftly in implementing expansive financial policies
• Necessary to increase credit support for the real economy, maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of money and credit
• Necessary to also strengthen the implementation and transmission of interest rate policies, and solidly organise the batch adjustment of interest rates to reduce the stock of housing loans

PBOC Governor says 7-day reverse repo rate will be lowered by 0.2%

• RRR could be cut by 25 to 50bp by year end

People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng

• Expected that depending on the market liquidity situation by the end of the year, the reserve requirement ratio could be further reduced
• to achieve dynamic balance, macroeconomic policy should shift from investment-focused to balancing both investment and consumption
• monetary policy framework will be further improved, with a focus on achieving a reasonable rise in prices as a key consideration
• depending on market liquidity, reserve requirement ratio could be further reduced by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points before the end of the year
• the interest rate of 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market will be lowered by 0.2 percentage points
• interest rate of medium-term lending facilities could be reduced by 0.3 percentage points, depending on market liquidity
• loan market prime rate (LPR) could also be lowered by 0.2%

PBOC Governor provides directions for stock buybacks

• People’s Bank of China

Chinese state media with comments from Pan Gongsheng, People’s Bank of China governor:

• PBOC provides specific directions for stock buybacks and reloans to increase holdings, and it is the bottom line that credit funds cannot enter stock market in violation of regulations
• Central bank’s provision of stock buyback and additional purchase re-loans has specific directional aims, and a fundamental bottom line is that loan funds must not unlawfully enter the stock market
• The two tools to support the stable development of the capital market are entirely based on market-oriented principles, and swap facility is not direct financial support from central bank

Downbeat comments from the IMF on China: reforms needed, ‘trouble’, ‘failure’

• IMF MD: China should not ‘rely on some miracle’

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva:

• China’s stimulus measures are ‘in the right direction’ but structural reforms are needed to drive domestic consumption.
• China should not ‘rely on some miracle’ that would allow exports to keep driving growth with its massive size.
• China faces ‘trouble’ if it tries to stick to an export-led growth model, with more trade tensions and slower growth.
• Failure to shift the economic model toward consumption risks medium-term annual growth falling below 4%.
• China should focus on boosting consumer confidence, creating a social protection system, and developing the education and health sectors.

Confirmation news – China banks cut fixed deposit rates by 25bp

• News of this coming has been out for many hours

Cuts of 25bp confirmed now from China’s Industrial Commercial Bank, Communications Bank, China Merchants Bank.

ICYMI – NAB forecast a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut at the first meeting of 2025

• NAB tip a 25bp cut in February 2025, from forecasting May earlier

A note this week from National Australia Bank shifting forward their projection for the RBA:

• We have brought forward our expectations for the timing of rate cuts, now seeing a first cut in February 2025 (previously May)
• we continue to see a gradual pace of cuts back to 3.10% by early 2026

Main points from the note, in summary:

• Nov/Dec cuts ruled out despite GDP growth near 1.0% y/y
• Capacity utilization remains elevated
• Inflation risks prompt delay in first cut timing
• Q3 CPI expected at 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) trimmed mean
• Labor market holding stronger than expected; unemployment to stabilize ~4.5%

BOJ governor Ueda remarks that Japanese economy is recovering moderately

• The remarks are from Ueda but being read out by BOJ deputy governor Uchida

• Japan economy recovering moderately but some weak moves seen
• Financial system remains stable as a whole
• Must be vigilant to market, FX moves and impact on economy, prices

Japan data – September CPI Headline +2.5% y/y (vs. +2.5% expected)

• Will the Bank of Japan just hike in December regardless?

Japanese CPI Overall 2.5% y/y

• expected 2.5%, prior 3.0%

Core CPI (excluding fresh food) 2.4% y/y

• expected 2.3%, prior 2.8%

Core-core 2.1% y/y

• expected 2.0%, prior 1.9%

Japan’s government says closely watching speculative FX moves

A spokesman for the Japanese government with verbal intervention to prop up the yen:

• Won’t comment on FX levels
• important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency, including speculative moves.

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs says:

• recent yen moves are somewhat rapid and one-sided
• closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency
• excess volatility in FX market is undesirable

Cryptocurrency News

Crypto Today: Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as Market Sentiment Turns Greedy

Bitcoin continues its impressive climb, briefly surpassing $68,300 and coming within 8% of its all-time high of $73,777. As traders shift their sentiment toward “greed,” Ethereum maintains its position above $2,600, while XRP hovers around $0.55.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Updates:

• Bitcoin is showing resilience, trading steadily after touching $68,300. The largest cryptocurrency has gained over 7% since the start of the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicates that trader sentiment has turned “Greedy,” reading 73 on a scale from 0 to 100. This shift occurred on Thursday and intensified on Friday, prompting traders to watch for signs of potential market corrections if the index shifts into “Extreme Greed.”
• Ethereum continues to hold gains above $2,600, buoyed by a slight resurgence in institutional interest. Ethereum Spot ETFs saw net inflows of $48.4 million on Thursday, according to Farside Investors.
• XRP remains just under $0.55 as holders process the latest developments regarding the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) appeal in its lawsuit against Ripple. Confusion over the filing deadline and the revised timeline for the lawsuit’s resolution has kept traders on edge.

Market Updates:

• The EigenLayer, an Ethereum re-staking protocol, experienced a security breach, as confirmed by both Web3 antivirus De.Fi and crypto exchange Crypto.com. Users were alerted to the incident through an official announcement.
• Singapore’s DBS Bank has launched token services aimed at enhancing blockchain-enabled banking, as stated in an official announcement on its website.
• Bitcoin is steadily progressing toward its all-time high target of $73,777, even with $1.26 billion in options set to expire.

Industry Updates:

• Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) reported $470.6 million in net inflows on Thursday, showcasing growing institutional interest.
• The SEC’s appeal related to the Ripple lawsuit has been made public, revealing that the regulator did not contest XRP’s classification as a non-security.
• AI project Worldcoin has successfully launched its 3.0 version on the Optimism mainnet.

With Bitcoin’s momentum and shifting market sentiment, traders remain attentive to upcoming developments that could impact this bullish trend.

Crypto Takes a Turn: From Fearful Fumbles to Greedy Gains in Just One Week

Market Picture
The crypto market has flipped the script, gaining about 8% over the past week. It has stabilized around $2.30 trillion, even hitting a market cap of $2.32 trillion as of Friday. The sentiment index is soaring in greed territory at 73—its highest since late July—sharply contrasting the previous week’s fear level of 32.

Bitcoin has seen a robust rise of over 12% this week, making several attempts to breach the $68,000 threshold. The bulls flexed their muscles on Monday, propelling Bitcoin above the 200-day moving average in a single leap, smashing through previous highs and the upper limit of a multi-month descending channel. The next stop? The $71,000-$73,000 zone, where hefty resistance and historical peaks from March lie in wait.

News Background
CryptoQuant has highlighted that Bitcoin holdings on centralized exchanges have dwindled to multi-year lows, with more than 51,000 BTC pulled off major trading platforms last month.

Meanwhile, QCP Capital noted a surge in purchases of March call options on Bitcoin, targeting an eye-popping exercise price of $120,000. These acquisitions align with Bitcoin’s recent climb above $68,000, signaling a comeback for bullish long-term investors.

A16z Crypto estimates about 617 million crypto owners and 30-60 million monthly active users, excluding bots and temporary accounts. However, only 5-10% of these users are truly active, unveiling a massive opportunity to convert passive holders into engaged participants.

In Ethereum news, The Block reports a 30% drop in total revenue from staking since its peak in March, largely due to diminished network activity. Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, has pointed out that the network’s biggest hurdle is its fragmented ecosystem, currently resembling 34 different blockchains instead of a unified protocol.

Follow our recently launched pages. Join our community and never miss a beat in the dynamic world of trading.

https://www.facebook.com/BilalsTechLtd

https://www.linkedin.com/company/bilals-tech/

https://t.me/Market_Moving_News