Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Closing Stock Market Summary: Modest Gains Amid Mixed Sentiment

Major Indices:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +83.57 points at 42,208.22
• Nasdaq Composite: +100.25 points at 18,074.50
• S&P 500: +14.36 points at 5,732.93

Market Overview

Despite limited buying conviction in today’s trading session, the absence of strong selling pressure allowed major indices to close with modest gains. Investors showed some buy-the-dip interest, particularly in NVIDIA (NVDA), which rose by 4.0% to $120.87. Additionally, optimism surrounding a series of policy stimulus measures announced by China provided support to materials and industrials sectors, which gained 1.4% and 0.7%, respectively.

Key Developments

The People’s Bank of China announced several measures aimed at stimulating the economy:

• Lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 20 basis points to 1.50%.
• Cut the required reserve ratio by 50 basis points.
• Reduced the down payment requirement for second-home buyers from 25% to 15%.
• Introduced a CNY 800 billion ($113 billion) liquidity support facility for stocks.

This announcement fueled a 4.2% surge in China’s Shanghai Composite, leading to significant gains for Chinese ADRs. Notable performers included Li Auto (LI), which rose 11.4%, and Alibaba (BABA), up 7.9%.

Commodity Market Reaction

The anticipation of China’s stimulus measures also spilled over into the commodities market. Copper futures rose 3.0% to $4.49/lb, and WTI crude futures increased by 1.7% to $71.56/bbl. Notably, Freeport McMoRan (FCX), a leading gold and copper producer, was a standout performer in the S&P 500, gaining 7.9%.

Sector Performance

• Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%) and Industrials (+0.7%) showed relative strength due to gains from companies poised to benefit from increased economic activity in China.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 1.3%, bolstered by NVIDIA’s performance, which found support after dipping below its 50-day moving average earlier in the day.

Financial Sector Struggles

In contrast, the financial sector (-0.9%) struggled, driven by weakness in bank stocks. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) and SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) declined by 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively.

Treasury Yields and Economic Data

Treasury yields fell following a disappointing Consumer Confidence Report for September:

• The 2-year note yield settled at 3.55%, down three basis points.
• The 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.74%.

Economic Data Highlights:

• FHFA Housing Price Index: +0.1% (prior: 0.0%)
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +5.9% (prior: 6.5%)
• Consumer Confidence Index: Fell to 98.7 from 105.6, marking the largest decline since August 2021.

Looking Ahead

Tomorrow’s economic calendar includes:

• 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications index (prior: +14.2%)
• 10:00 ET: August New Home Sales (prior: 739K)
• 10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior: -1.63M)
• 13:00 ET: $70 billion 5-year note auction

Overall, today’s market sentiment reflects cautious optimism amid mixed signals from economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

US treasury sells $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.520%

• The WI level at the time of the auction was at 3.520%

• High yield: 3.52%
• WI level at the time of the auction: 3.520%
• Tail: 0.0% vs 6 month average of -0.3 basis points
• Bid to cover: 2.59X vs 6 month average at 2.66X
• Directs (domestic demand): 19.6% vs 6 month average of 19.9%
• Indirects (international demand): 67.8% vs 6 month average of 66.8%
• Dealers 12.8% vs 6 month average of 13.2%

Richmond Fed Composite index for September -21 vs. -13 estimate

• The Richmond Fed composite index for September 2024 details

• Prior month -19
• Services index -1 vs -11 last month
• Manufacturing shipments -18 vs -15 last month.

Other details:

• Employment -22 versus -15 last month
• Wages 15 versus +14 last month
• Prices paid 3.36 versus 2.45 last month
• Prices received 1.57 versus 1.87 last month
• New orders -23 versus -26 last month
• Backlog of orders -16 versus -27 last month
• Capacity utilization -20 versus -17 last month
• Capital expenditures -13 versus -14 last month
• Services expenditure -17 versus -12 last month
• Finished goods inventories 20 versus 16 last month.
• Raw materials inventory is 12 versus 18 last month.
• Equipment and software spending money 13 versus -13 last month

US Conference Board consumer confidence for September 98.7 vs 104.0 estimate

• US consumer confidence for September 2024

• Prior month 103.3 revised to 105.6
• Consumer confidence 98.7 vs 104.0 estimate
• Present Situation Index 124.3 vs. 134.4 last month
• Expectations Index 81.7 vs 82.5 last month.

Dana Peterson, chief economist at the conference Board said

“Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.”

Peterson added:

“The deterioration across the Index’s main components likely reflected consumers concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings—even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months remained low but there was a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession.”

Case Schiller Home price data for July 0.3% versus 0.4% estimate

• Case Shiller Home Price data for July

• Prior month 0.5% revised from 0.4%
• Home prices MoM 0.3% versus 0.4% expected
• Home prices YoY 5.9% versus 5.9% expected (prior month 6.5%).

Feds Bowman: Dissent warranted by inflation still above target

• Economic policymaker dissents on half-point cut, citing inflation above target. Sees risks in supply chain fragility, fiscal policy, and housing demand. Labor market shows signs of cooling, but economic indicators remain strong.

• Dissent to half-point cut warranted by inflation still above target, “measured pace of cuts more appropriate”
• Core inflation remains uncomfortably above 2% target with upside risks given ongoing growth in spending, wages
• Recalibrating policy appropriate given progress on inflation, but should not declare victory yet
• Upside risks to inflation still “prominent,” including supply chain fragility, fiscal policy, mismatch of housing supply and demand
• Though labor market has shown signs of cooling, wage growth, spending and GDP “not consistent” with a material economic weakening
• There are still more jobs than available workers
• Rise in unemployment largely due to slowed hiring and improving supply
• “Considerable” pent-up demand and available cash ready to be used as interest rate falls, a risk to meeting inflation goal
• Estimate of neutral rate “much higher” than before pandemic, policy not as restrictive as it may seem.
• It is hard for the Fed to measure impact of immigration on labor mkt

JP Morgan sees US equities higher still – plenty of supportive macro

• S&P 500

JP Morgan remark on US stock market strength, with the view that stocks will continue to find support from the macroeconomic environment. While there may be short-term volatility their expectations is for stocks to move higher still.

JPM cite:

• US consumer is in a strong position
• some individuals are feeling the effects of accumulated inflation, but overall consumer spending remains solid
• notable surge in credit activity
• lingering demand
• this all could fuel increased business creation, job growth, and housing demand

Bank of Canada Macklem.It is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate

BOC Macklem is speaking and says:

• It is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate
• The timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation
• Bank of Canada is pleased to see inflation at 2%, now needs to stick the landing.
• Continued easing in core inflation, which is still a little above 2%, is expected.
• Consumer spending, business hiring, and investment will be closely watched.
• There is concern about the rising share of borrowers without a mortgage who carry a credit card balance of at least 90% of their credit limit.
• A notable increase in financial stress among borrowers without a mortgage, mainly renters, has been observed.
• The bank is scaling down work on retail central bank digital currency, shifting focus to broader payments system research and policy development.
• We would like to see growth pickup above the 2%
• If there is further adjustment in the labor market it would probably be more unemployment

Commodities

Gold Skyrockets to All-Time High Amid Declining US Consumer Confidence

Gold prices surged to a new all-time high (ATH) of $2,655 during Tuesday’s North American session, driven by deteriorating consumer confidence in the United States and a weakening US Dollar. Currently, gold is trading at approximately $2,651.

Key Drivers Behind Gold’s Rally

• Deteriorating Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply from 105.6 to 98.7, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 103.8. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, indicated that the decline reflected concerns regarding the labor market, including reduced hours, slower payroll growth, and fewer job openings.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly Hezbollah’s urging of Iran to launch an attack against Israel, have heightened safe-haven demand for gold, propelling its price upward.

Market Sentiment and Fed Commentary

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, known for her hawkish stance, expressed concerns over inflation risks and emphasized the need for a “measured pace of cuts” in interest rates to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures. Market participants are currently anticipating at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting, with a 56.2% chance for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Daily Market Movers

• The S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, suggesting resilience in the services sector, even as manufacturing activity showed signs of further deterioration.
• According to the World Gold Council, global physically-backed gold ETFs experienced modest net inflows of 3 metric tons last week, reflecting continued interest in the precious metal amidst ongoing market uncertainties.

As gold prices reach historic heights, market participants are closely monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments, which could significantly influence future trends in the gold market.

OPEC extends oil demand outlook to 2050

• OPEC extends oil demand outlook to 2050 and says there is no peak demand on the horizon.
• OPEC raises oil demand forecasts for medium term to 2028 and long term to 2045 – 2024 World Oil Outlook.
• OPEC puts total oil sector investment needed to 2050 at $17.4 trillion, compared with $14 trillion by 2045 estimated in 2023.

Crude oil extends to new highs

• Up close to two dollars to a today high of $72.36

The price of crude oil has extended to a gain of two dollars at $72.36. That’s up 2.77% on the day. The low price was at $70.47.

3 reasons there are still higher prices to come for Gold – UBS target US$2700

• UBS says gold is their “Most Preferred”

The price of gold hit its highest ever on Monday, and UBS is looking for higher to come.

1. The Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut has boosted enthusiasm for gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. This is expected to be the start of a larger easing cycle, with an additional 50 basis points of cuts likely in 2024 and 100 basis points in 2025. Lower interest rates may push investors toward gold as returns on cash decrease.

2. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are worsening, increasing the appeal of gold as a hedge against uncertainty. Recent military actions in Lebanon and Ukraine highlight ongoing conflicts, making gold a safer bet for portfolios.

3. Investor and central bank demand for gold remains strong. Central bank buying now represents about a quarter of total gold demand, up from previous years. Investor interest via gold ETFs has also been rising, with inflows continuing for the fourth month in a row as Fed rate cuts become more likely.

EU News

European shares end the day higher

• Gains are not like China and Hong Kong’s 4% gains, but a gain is better than a decline

The major European indices are ending the day with gains. The gains are not on par with the China and Hong Kong gains of 4% but German Dax up 0.75% and France’s CAC up 1.28% is not bad.

The closing levels show:

• German DAX, +0.75%
• France’s CAC +1.28%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.28%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.33%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.60%

Germany September Ifo business climate index 85.4 vs 86.0 expected

• Latest data released by Ifo – 24 September 2024

• Prior 86.6
• Current conditions 84.4 vs 86.0 expected
• Prior 86.5
• Expectations 86.3 vs 86.4 expected
• Prior 86.8

ECB’s Nagel: We assume German economy will slowly pick up some momentum again

ECB’s Nagel is on the wires saying that:

• We assume German economy will slowly pick up some momentum again.
• The main factors behind Germany’s growth has been the energy crisis, weak foreign demand and high inflation
• The consequences of high inflation have depressed economic activity.
• Many consumers have held back on spending.
• The tight monetary policy is dampening the economy

ECB’s Muller: An October cut isn’t totally excluded

• Remarks from the Bank of Estonia Governor Madis Muller

• An October cut isn’t totally excluded.
• Too early to have strong view on October meeting.
• It will be easier to decide on cut in December.
• Services inflation needs to slow further.

BOE’s Bailey: Inflation has come down a long way

• Remarks by BOE governor, Andrew Bailey

• I’m very encouraged that the path of inflation is downwards
• Hence, I do think the path for interest rates will be downwards as well, but gradually
• My best guess is interest rates will settle at a “neutral rate”

Swiss National Bank meet this week – consensus expectation is for a 25bp interest rate cut

• Reuters poll shows 30 of 32 economists expect a third consecutive rate cut from the SNB

The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.0%.

Reuters poll shows:

• 30 of 32 economists expect a 25 bp cut
• 1 expect a 50 bp cut
• 1 expects no change
• further ahead, 18 of 32 expect a hold in December

Factors cited include:

• SNB raised interest rates more modestly than major peers
• SNB began cutting sooner, first one was in March
• Swiss inflation fell to 1.1% in August, the lowest among G10 economies (the SNB target banks is 0-2%)
• CHF has remained strong

More from Reuters:

• “Policymakers will be unhappy with the franc’s recent appreciation and will use rate cuts to try and stifle its ascent. Further ahead, if the franc continues to appreciate the SNB may revert to using large FX interventions,” said Adrian Prettejohn, Europe economist at Capital Economics. “We think the SNB will not want to cut the policy rate much further, if at all, in response to a strong franc as policymakers will want to reserve some space to loosen policy in case a domestic shock occurs in the future.”

Asia-Pacific-World News

Morgan Stanley prefers Chinese stocks trading offshore over those listed on the mainland

• Morgan Stanley’s 2 reasons for dropping its preference for A-shares

Morgan Stanley has recommended that investors rethink their preference for Chinese stocks listed on the mainland in favor of those traded internationally. According to a Bloomberg (gate) report, this change in outlook is driven by shifts in the key factors that have traditionally made onshore Chinese shares attractive.

Morgan Stanley says “The two biggest supporting factors have shifted significantly over the past couple of months”:

1. A decrease in purchasing activity by state-backed investors, often referred to as the “national team”

• Morgan Stanley analysts note that state-linked funds, which have been instrumental in supporting domestic stock prices through substantial share purchases, are likely to take an “interim break.”

2. Reduced likelihood of yuan depreciation

• Morgan Stanley revised its outlook on the yuan exchange rate, now projecting stability around 7.1 towards the end of the year
• a weaker yuan could potentially boost exports and benefit the broader economy, it would also decrease the value of Chinese stocks in foreign currency terms

PBOC and other senior economic officials press briefing underway

• PBoC, CSRC and NFRA

People’s Bank of China Governor says must support steady recovery of prices, economy

• PBoC Gov says must coordinate monetary and fiscal policies

People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng:

• must coordinate monetary and fiscal policies
• must support steady recovery of prices in the economy
• by year end we might cut RRR rate further
• after RRR cut financial weighted ratio for large banks will be reduced to 8%
• MLF will be lowered by 0.3%
• LPR will be lowered by 0.2 to 0.25%
• Fed rate cut eased external pressure on the yuan exchange rate
• yuan has a relatively solid, stable foundation

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0510 (vs. estimate at 7.0495)

• China is in the midst of announcing more stimulus efforts

People’s Bank of China will cut 7-day reverse repo to 1.5% from 1.7%

• More rate cuts to come from China

Also announcing now that the 7-day RR will be cut to 1.5%, from its current 1.7%.

• also, down payments for second homes will be cut to 15% from 25%
• will create new tools to support stable development of stock market’

China’s youth unemployment rate hit a fresh high in the latest data

• China’s youth unemployment rate in August rose to the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December

If anything is likely to prompt further stimulus in China this is probably it. Youth unemployment in China can have unwanted political repercussions for the Chinese Communist Party.

China’s youth unemployment rate in August, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data released Friday:

• ages 16 to 24, and not in school,18.8%
• from 17.1% in July

Reasons cited include:

• economic slowdown
• restrictive hiring policies

CNBC carry a snippet from HSBC:

• “It’s increasingly hard for young people to find high paying jobs as before, because in the past three years, the high value-added city services sectors which used to absorb many fresh graduates were in sharp contraction, in particular real estate, finance and IT”

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected

• The Australian central bank announces its September 2024 monetary policy decision

• Prior 4.35%
• Latest data does not change previous assessment that policy is restrictive and working as anticipated
• The outlook remains highly uncertain
• Inflation is still some way above the midpoint of the 2% to 3% target range
• Returning inflation to target is the priority
• Underlying inflation remains too high
• Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until confidence returns that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range
• RBA remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome
• The most recent projections in the August SMP show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range
• Data since then have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation
• RBA is not ruling anything in or out on next policy steps

They added just one passage to the to the guidance communique, that being:

“The most recent projections in the August SMP show that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.”

RBA’s Bullock: We are prepared to respond in either direction depending on the data

• Remarks by RBA governor, Michele Bullock

• Did not explicitly consider a rate hike at this meeting
• Format of discussion has changed
• But recent data has not materially affected policy outlook
• Progress on underlying inflation likely remained slow in Q3
• Monthly inflation data is quite volatile (when asked about the data tomorrow)
• Headline CPI could come in within 2% to 3% target band
• But that is not really reflective of underlying inflation pulse
• Disinflation in other major economies is much more advanced than in Australia
• Our policy is also not as restrictive as others, we (rates) didn’t go up as high here
• We did discuss whether the policy messaging should change
• But message is clear that we still do not see rate cuts in the near-term
• Prepared to respond in either direction depending on the data
• We are not thinking of what size we might eventually cut rates by
• Will only discuss how big those moves will be when the time comes
• If our rates are steady while others cut, it supports the Australian dollar
• Not discussed possibility of government overruling RBA on policy decisions
• Even if headline inflation returns to 2% figure, it does not mean inflation is under control
• “Sustainably” means inflation coming back down and staying within target band consistently
• We are not encouraging or discouraging anything with the exchange rate
• Focus should be on the trade-weighted index of the aussie, rather than AUD/USD

Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today – preview – on hold expected

• Reserve Bank of Australia statement due at 2.30pm Sydney time

The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is coming at 0030 US Eastern time, 0430 GMT.

• Governor Bullock will hold her press conference an hour later.
• Expectations are unanimous for an on hold decision.

ANZ, in its preview, say they expect the RBA Board to consider hiking the cash rate today, but to settle with an unchanged rate. ANZ expect the first RBA rate cut in February of 2025, “But the risks look to have tilted to a later rather than an earlier start, particularly given the current momentum in the labour market”.

Australian weekly consumer confidence survey hits its highest since January 2023

• ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index remains firmly pessimistic

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey for the week

• +0.8pts to 84.9
• highest since January 2023

BOJ governor Ueda says must conduct monetary policy in timely, appropriate fashion

• Remarks by BOJ governor, Kazuo Ueda

• But without a pre-set schedule and taking into account various uncertainties
• Appropriate to raise rates if trend inflation heightens in line with forecast
• Market developments are still unstable
• Watching US and overseas economic outlook with strong sense of urgency
• Can afford to spend some time in scrutinising market moves and recent developments
• Consumption activity likely to increase moderately as household incomes rises
• It is becoming clear that impact of wage hikes is heightening
• Global markets remain somewhat unstable
• Must watch market developments with strong sense of urgency
• It would be desirable for exchange rate to move stably reflecting fundamentals

Japan Jibun preliminary Sep PMIs: Manufacturing 49.6 (prior 49.8) Services 53.9 (53.7)

• Japan S&P Global / Jibun Bank Flash PMIs for September 2024

Japan preliminary PMIs, manufacturing slipping deeper into contraction, services improving a little.

Manufacturing PMI 49.6

• prior 49.8

Services 53.9

• prior 53.7

Composite 52.5

• prior 52.9

Snippet from the report commentary, price pressures will be welcomed by the Bank of Japan:

• expansion in business activity remained services-led in September, where the rate of increase strengthened to a five-month high
• Manufacturing output meanwhile fell back into contraction territory for the second time in three months
• the rate of input cost inflation eased in September to reach the lowest for six months
• manufacturing and services firms noted softer cost pressures, though average operating expenses remained historically elevated overall
• the rate of output price inflation ticked up slightly from August

Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Consolidate as SUI Soars with Impressive Gains

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a phase of consolidation, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP holding steady amid recent developments. SUI stands out with an impressive 65% monthly gain, driven by significant updates within its ecosystem.

Market Overview

• Bitcoin: Trading around $63,600, consolidating within the $62,000 and $64,700 key levels, as profit-taking and mild ETF inflows of $4.5 million are observed.
• Ethereum: After testing the $2,595 support, Ethereum has bounced back towards the $2,630 level, with resistance potentially at $2,817. Notably, Ethereum ETFs recorded significant net outflows of $79.3 million on Monday, marking the highest outflow since July 30.
• XRP: Currently hovering around $0.589, XRP could gain bullish momentum if it reclaims the $0.600 psychological level.

Market Movers and Developments

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remained relatively muted despite the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announcing a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirements ratio (RRR). While this move is intended to stimulate the economy and increase bank lending, the crypto market did not respond as it did to the recent Fed interest rate cuts.

The correlation between Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and US stock movements highlights a shift in market dynamics. Historically, the fourth quarter has been positive for crypto, with Bitcoin and Ethereum averaging returns of 88.84% and 23.29%, respectively.

On a different note, concerns about BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF transparency surfaced after the asset manager decided to limit public access to its on-chain balance to reduce spam related to sanctioned Bitcoin and NFTs. Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that BlackRock would share its balance with institutional clients upon request.

SUI’s Stellar Performance

SUI is one of the top performers in the cryptocurrency space, boasting a 65% rise over the past month and nearly 7% in the last 24 hours. Key factors driving SUI’s success include:

• Increased user activity in its DeFi ecosystem, with total value locked nearing $1 billion.
• The launch of Mysticeti, which reportedly reduces consensus time to 390 milliseconds.
• The opening of Grayscale’s SUI Trust to accredited investors.

Conclusion

As Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP consolidate, attention turns to SUI’s remarkable growth and the broader implications of central banks’ easing policies. With a historically favorable Q4 approaching, the crypto market may continue its upward trajectory, shaped by evolving trends and institutional movements.

Bitcoin Steadies Above $62,000 Amid Profit-Taking and Softening Institutional Demand

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $63,800 as it consolidates within the key levels of $62,000 and $64,700. This period of stability comes as traders engage in profit-taking, coupled with a mild decline in institutional demand, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase.

Market Insights

• Current Price: $63,800
• Consolidation Range: $62,000 – $64,700

Profit-Taking Activity

According to on-chain data from Santiment, the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric reveals that some Bitcoin traders are cashing in on profits. The NPL indicator, which reflects the daily Return On Investment (ROI) based on on-chain transaction volumes, spiked from $553.43 million to $1.33 billion from September 19 to September 20, and from $120.79 million to $757.43 million from Sunday to Monday. These significant increases suggest that holders are, on average, realizing profits during this consolidation phase.

Institutional Demand Trends

The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index from CryptoQuant indicates a slight decrease in institutional demand, falling from 0.021 to -0.001 between Saturday and Monday. Trading below its 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.014, this drop points to reduced activity from large-wallet investors, which may further contribute to the current consolidation in Bitcoin’s price.

Spot ETF Inflows

Coinglass’s Spot ETF data shows weakening buying pressure in the spot market. On Monday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF reported mild inflows of $4.50 million, signaling stagnant institutional demand and reinforcing the notion of short-term consolidation.

As Bitcoin holds steady, market participants are closely monitoring these indicators, which reflect profit-taking behaviors and shifting dynamics in institutional interest, potentially shaping the near-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.

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