North American News
Nasdaq Sets Unprecedented Record High for Fifth Straight Day
- S&P snaps its 4 day record close string
The NASDAQ index achieved a new record close at 17,192.53 on Monday, continuing this remarkable trend through Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and again today, marking a streak of five consecutive days of record highs. The S&P 500 followed a similar trajectory throughout the week, but its streak of record closes ended at four days with a marginal drop today.
Despite this, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices closed higher for the week overall. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a decline today, resulting in a lower close for the week.
Closing Numbers:
- Dow Industrial Average average -57.94 points or -0.15% at 38589.15
- S&P index -2.14 points or -0.04% at 5431.61
- NASDAQ index rose 21.32 points or 0.12% at 17688.88
for the trading week:
- Dow industrial average fell -0.54%
- S&P index rose 1.58%
- NASDAQ index rose 3.24% which was its largest weekly gain since April 22.
The small-cap Russell 2000 did not fare as well today or this week. On the day, the index fell -32.75 points or -1.61% at 2006.15. For the trading week, the index fell -1.00%.
Some big winners this week included:
- Broadcom, +23.35%. The company announced earnings and also a 10:1 stock split
- Adobe +12.87%. They announced their earnings which beat expectations and raised guidance as well
- CrowdStrike: +10.45%. They too announced better-than-expected earnings
- Shopify, +9.87%
- Super Micro Computer, +9.81%
- Nvidia, +9.09%
- Micron, +7.96%
- Lam Research, +7.61%
- Home Depot +6.04%
- Palo Alto networks, +5.10%
Some big losers included:
- Celcius -17.87%
- Trump Media, -17.2%
- Raytheon, -17.17%
- Paramount, -15.32%.
- Beyond Meat, -12.52%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow back above 3.0% after a rise from 2.6%
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1% from 2.6% on June 6
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 7, up from 2.6 percent on June 6.After this morning’s employment situation release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and 7.7 percent.
US UMich June prelim consumer sentiment 65.6 vs 72.0 expected
- The June 2024 UMich June preliminary consumer sentiment reading
- Prior was 67.4
- Current conditions 62.5 vs 68.8 prior
- Expectations 67.6 vs 66.5 prior
- 1-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.5% prior
- 5 year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prior
US import prices -0.4% vs +0.1% expected
- US import/export prices
- Prior was +0.9%
- Export prices -0.6% vs 0.0% expected
- Import prices 1.1% vs 1.1% prior
Fed Pres. Goolsbee CPI data this week was very good
- Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee speaking
- CPI data this week was very good.
- If we got a lot of months like May CPI data, we would be feeling very good
- My feeling was relief
- We got to see some more progress
- We are going to get a lot of data between now and September, December meetings
- In the near to medium term what will determine if rates go back to normal is if inflation is on its path to 2%
- That has a 2% inflation goal and it must keep that promise
- We are going to get to 2% inflation
- If we get it to 2% I am fine with then having a discussion on changing the target but not until then.
- Dynamics now look a lot more like the regular business cycle
- if we get more months like we just saw on inflation, Fed can cut rates.
- Pain is rising in various parts of the economy
- if we keep making progress on inflation, and the rates can come down, we may avoid recession
- A stronger dollar would affect export/import balance and affect US employment and inflation
- If inflation had behaves as it did in first quarter, we would have a hard time cutting rates
- Unemployment rate, quits rate, ratio of jobs to openings looks like labor market is calling
- I don’t take too much signal from the monthly payroll data by itself
Fed’s Mester: We are starting to see inflation move down again after stalling
- Comments from the Fed’s Mester
- You can see our policy affect the economy, cited housing, growth and labor market
- The question is whether it’s sufficiently restrictive
- We are seeing the labor market coming into better balance
- I would want to see ‘a few more months’ of better inflation data
- At some point you need to worry about the other side of the mandate
- It’s important not to wait too long to cut rates
- I’m pretty confident the committee is doing good work (and won’t miss the turn in the economy)
- I can tell you that in 39 years, politics doesn’t come into that room
ING expect first Fed rate cut in September after this week’s data
- PPI and Claims data reinforces argument for cuts to start in September
- Jump in claims is highest since August last year, indicating a cooling labor market and presenting an upside risk to the Fed’s forecast of maintaining unemployment at 4%.
- Soft PPI figures increase likelihood of a second consecutive 0.2% or lower MM rise for PCE.
- Combination of rising claims and soft PPI reinforces argument for cuts to start in September
Canada April wholesale sales +2.4% vs +2.8% expected
- Canada April wholesale and manufacturing sales
- Prior was -1.1%
- Manufacturing sales +1.1% vs +1.2% expected
- Prior manufacturing sales -2.1%
Commodities
Silver holds key support of $29 as cooler US CPI boosts Fed rate-cut bets
- Silver price gains ground above $29.00.
- Traders price in two rate cuts this year against one signaled by the Fed.
- Silver price trades in a Falling Channel formation.
Silver clings to key support of $29.00 in Friday’s American session. The white metal rebounds as US bond yields come under pressure due to improved speculation that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.
Data shows that the probability for rate cuts in September has improved to almost 71% from 50.4% recorded a week ago.Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have risen as the US consumer and produce inflation decline on monthly and an annual basis in May.Major contribution to decline in price pressures came from soft gasoline prices.
Natural Gas playing a close call to close above $3.0 ahead of the weekend
- Natural Gas recovers a touch on Friday after its technical correction on Thursday.
- European Natural Gas is looking for direction with
NatGas recovers slightly on Friday after briefly dipping lower and briefly breaking below the $3.0 figure on Thursday. The risk for more downside comes with the political turmoil in Europe, particularly in France, that is causing distress in the European sovereign bond markets, hurting the growth potential for the bloc. On the other hand, a string of court rulings in favor of several big industrial companies against Russian Gas exporter Gazprom and supply issues in Australia are pushing up European prices close to a six-month high.
Natural Gas is trading at about $3.02 per MMBtu.
Gas traders unsure what to do next
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has opened the door again for peace negotiations with a list of requirements before taking a seat at the table.
- Supply issues in Australia persist ahead of the weekend, with the Wheatstone offshore plant from Chevron still fully shut down.Repairs will take longer than expected, Reuters reports.
- European Gas prices saw a similar pattern, where the rally got snapped this week, while traders look to Egypt as the country keeps hoarding Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) in order to meet summer heat season and energy demand.
- The EIA (Energy Information Administration) reported on Thursday that the Natural Gas Storage Change was a build of 74 billion cubic feet of natural gas against 98 billion cubic feet last week.
Crude oil settles at $78.45
- Down $0.17 or -0.22%
Crude oil futures are settling at $78.45.That is down $0.17 and -0.22%. The high-priced today reached $79.11. The low price was at $77.75.
Baker Hughes US oil rig count -4
- Weekly US oil and gas drilling rigs
- Oil -4 to 488
- Natural gas unchanged at 98
EU News
European equity close
- Ugly week in European stocks
Closing changes:
- Stoxx 600 -1.0%
- German DAX -1.3%
- UK FTSE 100 -0.1%
- French CAC -2.7%
- Italy MIB -2.9%
- Spain IBEX -0.9%
Eurozone April trade balance €15.0 billion vs €20.0 billion expected
- Latest data released by Eurostat – 14 June 2024
- Prior €24.1 billion
The overview of the trade situation in the euro area as of April 2024:
France May final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
- Latest data released by INSEE – 14 June 2024
- Prior +2.2%
- HICP +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.4%
UK public inflation expectations down slightly in latest BOE survey
- Inflation expectations for the year ahead is seen at 2.8%, compared to 3.0% in February
Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the 12 months after that is seen at 2.6% (vs 2.8% previously). The inflation expectations for 5 years’ time remains unchanged at 3.1% though. As for the public opinion on rates, 42% think it is best for the economy if rates are to go down. That is the highest share in the vote since November 2008.
ECB’s Centeno: Disinflation process to resume after August
- Remarks by ECB policymaker, Mario Centeno
- Some recovery in real wages is inevitable
- We should continue to be data-dependent
ECB’s Kazāks: Market expectations on rates are ‘reasonable’
- Remarks by ECB policymaker, Mārtiņš Kazāks
- Uncertainty is high but the path is leaning towards lower inflation
- We can remove some restriction but still need to retain some degree of restrictiveness
ECB’s Vasle: rate cutting is likely to be slower than hiking was
- Remarks by the Slovenian central bank chief
- Rate cutting is likely to be slower than hiking was.
- Inflation has slowed markedly in recent months.
- Risks to the disinflation process remain.
- Persistent wage gains could slow disinflation.
- Services costs and political tensions are other risks.
- Decisions are to be made meeting by meeting.
Asia-Pacific-World News
China May M2 money supply +7.0% vs +7.2% y/y expected
- Latest Chinese credit data for May 2024 has been released
- Prior +7.2%
- New yuan loans ¥950.0 bn
- Prior ¥730.0 bn
New bank loans continue to show further signs of moderation, with the above figure missing on estimates of around ¥1.2 trillion. The January to May total stands at ¥11.14 trillion
PBoC injects 2 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse repos
- Sets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior
- PBoC injects 2 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse repos
- Sets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior
43 of 43 economists surveyed agree that RBA will leave rates on hold in June
- No surprises here
• A 90% majority expecting rates to remain steady next quarter and a 25 basis-point cut to 4.10% projected in the final quarter of this year.
• A significant number of economists (63%) forecast interest rates to fall to 4.10% or lower by year-end, while a minority (35%) expect no change.
ANZ expects RBNZ to cut sooner than previously signaled
- Lower growth is the main reason for their view
• Underlying economic momentum remains weak and is consistent with disinflation.
• Future fiscal policy is expected to lead to lower government spending and so doing support monetary policy
• The Q1 GDP data will be critical for the RBNZ in assessing domestic demand and inflation risks.Private consumption and various investment and spending indicators will be important to gauge underlying economic conditions.
• The weak economic backdrop suggests the RBNZ may cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) sooner than previously signaled, with expectations for cuts starting in February 2025.
• GDP expected to expand by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2024, aligning with the RBNZ’s May forecast, and annual growth rate is projected to be 0.3%.
NZ food price index -0.2 vs 0.6 prior
- May 2024 food price index
• New Zealand food price index -0.2 vs 0.6 prior
NZ Manufacturing PMI 47.2 vs 48.9 prior
- May 2024 manufacturing index
• New Zealand manufacturing pmi prints at 47.2 vs a prior of 48.9
BOJ governor Ueda: Will begin tapering bond purchases immediately after July meeting
- Remarks by BOJ governor, Kazuo Ueda, in his press conference
- Decision to reduce JGB purchases is to ensure long-term yields are formed more freely
- Japan’s economic, price uncertainties remain high
- Must pay due attention to financial, FX markets
- The size of cut in bond purchases is to be substantial
- The specific amount will be decided after listening to input from market participants
- Decided to put off tapering until next meeting to have discussion with market participants
- Constantly checking FX moves, sustainability of those moves, and its impact on prices
- Will set rates at July meeting while considering reduction in JGB purchases
Japan’s Hayashi says will continue to closely monitor FX market
- Remarks by Japan’s chief Cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi
- No comment on possible market impact from BOJ decision
- Expects BOJ to conduct policy appropriately, working closely with government
Japan’s Suzuki saying will monitor impact of China’s excess production
- Comments from Japanese Finance Minister
- Will monitor impact of China’s excess production on Japanese economy.
- Poised to soon officially announce new sanction package against Russia.
BoJ maintains overnight rates at 0.1%
- No surprise on rates but no change to purchases
- BOJ makes decision on JGB purchases by 8-1 vote.
- BOJ Board Member Nakamura dissented to decision on JGB purchases.
- BOJ’s Nakamura dissented to decision on JGB purchases, saying bank should decide to reduce it after reassessing developments in economic activity and prices in July 2024 Outlook Report.
- Decided to trim bond buying to allow long-term interest rates to move more freely.
- Will decide on specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at next policy meeting.
- BOJ: Uncertainties surrounding economic, financial developments at home remain high.
- BOJ: Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen.
- BOJ: Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
- BOJ: Financial conditions have been accommodative.
- BOJ: Private consumption has been resilient.
- BOJ: Private consumption has been resilient although the impact of price rises has remained and auto sales have continued to be pushed down.
- BOJ’s Nakamura was in favor of the idea of reducing BOJ’s purchase amount of JGBs.
- BOJ: Will hold a meeting with bond market participants on today’s policy decision.
- BOJ: Decided to trim bond buying to allow long-term interest rates to move more freely.
- BOJ: Will decide on a specific bond buying reduction plan for the next 1-2 years at the next policy meeting.
- BOJ: Necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and forex markets.
- BOJ: Underlying CPI inflation expected to rise gradually.
- BOJ: Industrial output has been more or less flat as a trend.
- BOJ: Industrial output continues to be pushed down recently by suspension of production and shipment at some automakers.
South Korea export price growth YY 7.5% versus 6.2% prior
- Import price growth YY 4.6% versus 2.9% prior
• South Korea May export prices in won terms +7.5% y/y vs +6.5% in April
• South Korea May import prices in won terms +4.6% y/y vs +2.9% in April
• South Korea May export prices mark fastest rise y/y since Nov 2022
• South Korea May import prices mark fastest rise y/y since Dec 2022
Cryptocurrency News
Ethereum Struggles to Rebound Amid Sell-Off Despite BlackRock Executive’s Endorsement as Tokenization Leader
- Ethereum will host traditional market participants’ tokenization efforts as they look to avoid liquidity fragmentation.
- SEC Chair Gensler maintains uncertain position when asked if ETH is a commodity.
- Ethereum may sustain range-bound movement in the short term.
Ethereum’s (ETH) price failed to record any gain on Friday, as its down by about 1.4%. This follows recent comments from a key BlackRock executive suggesting Ethereum will be the home of upcoming tokenization efforts from traditional market participants.
Tokenization on Ethereum, ETH commodity question
In a panel discussion at a Coinbase event on Thursday, BlackRock’s CIO of ETF and Index Investments, Samara Cohen, suggested that permissioned blockchains won’t scale.
She mentioned that traditional market participants are gearing their tokenization efforts toward building on open-source Ethereum in order not to fragment liquidity, according to VanEck’s Matthew Sigel.
“If you’re serious about open-source, you can’t not build on Ethereum,” Sigel stated.
Meanwhile, at a Senate hearing on Thursday, Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler seemed to maintain an uncertain position when questioned whether ETH is a commodity. He failed to give a yes or no response again.At the same hearing, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Rostin Behnam reiterated that ETH is a commodity.This comes after Gensler confirmed that the SEC will likely approve spot ETH ETF S-1s over the summer.
Many speculated that the SEC had begun considering ETH as a commodity after the 19b-4 approval of spot ETH ETFs.However, Gensler’s recent position has caused doubts among crypto community members.
Ripple Collaboration Poised to Boost RWA Sector Gains, But XRP Remains Below $0.50
- Ripple extended collaboration with Archax for tokenizing Real World Assets at the XRP Ledger APEX 2024 summit.
- The FCA-regulated digital securities exchange could help RWA projects bring their assets to XRP Ledger.
- XRP extended its seventh day of losses to nearly 8% on Friday, down to $0.48.
Ripple (XRP) announced that the payment remittance firm extended its collaboration with FCA regulated digital securities exchange Archax.The collaboration is focused on Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, an emerging narrative in the ecosystem.
Archax will help bring projects to the XRPLedger, enabling the tokenization of millions of assets and enhancing the utility of Ripple’s blockchain.
XRP struggles to break past and close above key psychological resistance at $0.50.The altcoin wiped out nearly 8% in value in the past seven days on Binance.
Ripple announces collaboration with FCA-regulated entity
- Ripple’s announcements at its annual summit XRP Ledger APEX 2024 are the current market movers for XRP in the absence of new updates in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple.
- XRP holders are awaiting a ruling in the case.The latest move is Ripple’s letter supporting its motion to seal documents that contain sensitive financial information from the payment remittance firm.
- The last filing was made on May 29, 2024.
- In APEX 2024, Ripple has announced an extended collaboration with Archax, a regulated exchange that will bring RWA projects to the XRP Ledger. The goal is to tokenize millions of dollars in real world assets on the Ledger, boosting Ripple’s utility.
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