Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Stocks Rally as Yields Retreat: Major Indices Close Higher

• Nasdaq up 1.5% on the day

The major indices all closed higher today led by the Nasdaq index.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow Industrial Average rose 185.34 points or 0.54% at 34474.18
• S&P index rose 48.58.41.11 percent at 4436.12
• NASDAQ index rose 215.15 points or 1.59% at 13721.02

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 19.19 points or 1.04% at 1870.02

Gains today were helped by lower rates:

• 2 year yield 4.966% -7.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 4.364%, -11.6 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.187% -14.0 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.262%, -14.9 basis points

Nvidia EPS /revenues beat estimates. EPS $2.70 vs $2.09 est. Rev $13.507B vs 11.224B est

• Nvidia earnings and revenues
• EPS $2.70 versus estimate of $2.09
• Revenue $13.51B versus estimated $11.224B
• Revenue of $16B estimate for next quarter vs $12.1B estimate

Breaking down revenue:

• DataCenter $10.32B vs estimate of $7.691B
• Gaming $2.49B vs estimate of .$2.4B
• Automotive $253M vs estimate of $317M
• Professional visualisation $379M vs estimate of $318M
• OEM and IP $xxxM vs. estimate of $101M
• Adjusted gross margins at 71.2% versus expected 70.1%
• Adjusted operating income is $7.78 billion versus expected $5.89 billion

Comment from Nvidia:

• “New computing era has begun”

The stock is trading up at $514 that’s up $43 or 9.16%.

Other AI related stocks:

• Microsoft shares are trading up 2.21% at $334.23
• Adobe shares are up 0.75%
• AMD is up 2.44%

US treasury auctions of $16B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.499%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.49%

The US treasury auctioned off $16B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.499%.The WI level at the time of the auction was at 4.49%.

• High Yield:4.499%
  • Previous auction: 4.036%
  • Six-auction average: 3.968%
• WI at the time of the auction: 4.49%
• Tail: 0.9 basis points
  • Previous auction: 0.1bps
  • Six-auction average: -0.3bps
• Bid-to-Cover: 2.56X
  • Previous auction: 2.68x
  • Six-auction average: 2.64x
• Dealers (they take what domestic and international player don’t take): 11.35%
  • Previous auction: 9.6%
  • Six-auction average: 9.9%
• Directs (they represent domestic US investors): 20.2%
  • Previous auction: 21.7%
  • Six-auction average: 19.3%
• Indirects (they represent international investors): 68.45%
  • Previous auction: 68.8%
  • Six-auction average: 70.8%

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 18 August -4.2% vs -0.8% prior

• Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 18 August 2023

• Prior -0.8%
• Market index 184.8 vs 193.0 prior
• Purchase index 142.0 vs 149.5 prior
• Refinance index 397.1 vs 408.4 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.31% vs 7.16% prior

US August S&P Global services flash PMI 51.0 vs 52.2 expected

• The manufacturing and services flash surveys from S&P Global
• Prior was 52.3
• Manufacturing 47.0 vs 49.3 expected (prior was 49.0)
• Composite 50.4 vs 52.0 prior
• “Cost pressures regained some momentum as
• the rate of input price inflation quickened on the back of
• greater fuel, wage and raw material costs.”
• US firms were more upbeat in their outlook for output over the coming year in August
• August data indicated only a fractional rise in employment.

Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business.Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“A near-stalling of business activity in August raises doubts over the strength of US economic growth in the third quarter.The survey shows that the service sector-led acceleration of growth in the second quarter has faded, accompanied by a further fall in factory output.

“Companies report that demand is looking increasingly lethargic in the face of high prices and rising interest rates. A resultant fall in new orders received by firms in August could tip output into contraction in September as firms adjust operating capacity in line with the deteriorating demand environment. Hiring could likewise soon turn into job shedding in the coming months after a near-stagnation of employment in August.

“Rising wage pressures as well as increased energy prices have meanwhile pushed input cost inflation higher, which will raise concerns over the stickiness of consumer price inflation in the months ahead. One upside is that weak demand is starting to limit pricing power, which should help keep a lid on inflation around the 3% mark.

Fund manager says Fed Chair Powell will err on the side of hawkishness at Jackson Hole

Analysts at US-based fund manager Invesco with their outlook for Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaking at Jackson hold on Friday, August 25 (he speaks from 10.05 am US Eastern time)

“I expect Fed policymakers to err on the side of hawkishness at their symposium in Jackson Hole later this week.”

Citing:

• the Fed needs to prevent financial conditions from easing
• would prefer to avoid any more rate hikes
• “It seems that the recent rise in Treasury yields reflects improved growth expectations, as fears about recession have subsided – and as inflation data continues to show improvement and survey-based inflation expectations have fallen.”

BoA see scope for USD resilience to continue, Fed’s focus to shift from higher to longer

Bank of America analysts like the US dollar, saying they “see scope for the USD’s resilience to continue.”

BoA make some useful points in the note, spanning the dollar and the Federal Reserve:

• Signs of growth divergence continue to favour the US. pulling up nominal and real rate differentials
• the mix of robust growth along with disinflation can suggest that central banks do not need to risk over-tightening, while at the same time, the economy could find equilibrium at a higher neutral interest rate
• Fed funds pricing for the remainder of 2023 has been stable, suggesting that the market believes that the Fed is at or near the terminal rate
• And while we see scope for even more cuts to be priced out for next year, the Fed funds futures (FFF) curve spanning 2024 has already removed -50bp of cuts since immediately after the June CPI.
• the USD’s correlation to changes in the 2024 curve is rising
• Going forward, the focus will likely shift from the “higher” part of policy guidance to the “longer” part

Bolding above is mine.

To illustrate the USD correlation with Fed Funds BoA print this graph:

US Commerce Sec Raimondo met with China’s Ambassador Xie Feng – ‘productive discussion’

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo met with China’s Ambassador Xie Feng.

US ‘readout’:

• Raimondo and Xie shared a productive discussion ahead of Raimondo’s upcoming trip to Beijing and Shanghai
• Raimondo raised issues of importance to the United States and American businesses and workers

US July new home sales 714K vs 705K expected

• US new home sales data
• Prior was 697K
• Single family sales +4.4% vs -2.8% prior
• Median sale price $ 436.7K vs $478.2K a year ago (-8.7%)
• Supply months 7.3 vs 7.4 months prior

JP Morgan concerned about sticky inflation, “Central banks could stay higher for longer”

A note from JP MOrgan with the transmission channel from stick inflation to higher for longer rates and thus a lid on the equity market.

• “we stick to our long-held view that inflation will keep moderating, we worry that there is no cushion here anymore, most are fully on board with the view”
• “At the same time, it is likely easier for inflation to move down from say 10% to 5%, but the move from 5% to 2% becomes incrementally harder”

On the implication for central banks:

• “Central banks could stay higher for longer …”

And thus equities:

• ” … which would limit any prospect for multiple expansion, and the market would then need to solely rely on earnings growth for upside”

JPM say that there is

• “a growing possibility that core PCE inflation could actually run above core CPI inflation for a time — reversing the historical gap between these two measures”

“We continue to look for the Fed to keep rates on hold into 2H24—barring an unexpected recession”

JPMorgan says earnings estimates appear too optimistic, wary of the downside in equities

JPMorgan says earnings estimates appear too optimistic, citing the most recent earnings season with soft profit growth and less upbeat corporate guidance:

• firms are seeing demand and prices soften, accompanied by ongoing margin pressure

“The consensus 2024 EPS growth rate of 12% appears too optimistic given an aging business cycle with

• very restrictive monetary policy,
• still rising cost of capital,
• lapping of very easy fiscal policy,
• eroding consumer savings and household liquidity,
• low unemployment rate,
• and increasing risk of a recession for some of the largest economies abroad (e.g., China, Germany)”

JPM acknowledge the US has done better, but this will dissipate:

• “While the US has recently diverged from these overseas economies, in our view it is likely due to longer lags in monetary policy transmission, and we would caution not to interpret this divergence as a sign that the US can avoid the negative impact of high interest rates,”

JPM add they doubt there is further upside for equities from here, reiterating its 4,150 year-end target.

• “We think there is a good chance that equity markets move meaningfully below our year-end projections in the interim.”

US non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions take 306K from March 2023 level of employment

• Revisions to non-farm payrolls
• Total employment lowered by 0.2%

This is the preliminary estimate of March 2023 total employment with the final revision coming in early February. There had been some talk of 500K job losses so it’s not quite as bad, but it’s still a significant drop and softens US employment somewhat.

Trump plans to ramp up taxes on imports, plus a ‘matching tax’, if elected

The US Presidential election is not until November next year, but jockeying for position is starting.

Trump is the frontrunner, easily, he is way out ahead, amongst Republican hopefuls, despite his imminent arrest:

Trump on Fox TV promised huge new taxes:

Reaffirmed his idea of a universal tariff, taxing all goods from foreign producers by a certain amount upon import

• “I think when companies come in and they dump their products in the United States, they should pay, automatically, let’s say, a 10% tax,”
• “That money would be used to pay off debt.It’s a massive amount of money even at 10%.”
• “The other thing I want to have is a matching tax”

ICYMI – US Commerce Department eases export restrictions on 27 Chinese entities

The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) said Monday that it is removing 27 Chinese entities from its Unverified List

• The companies were taken off the list after they successfully completed end-use checks that allowed the commerce department’s Bureau of Industry and Security to establish their “legitimacy and reliability”, according to a government statement.

This is being read as a sign that the US admin is extending an olive branch ahead to China of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s planned trip to Beijing later this month.

June Canada retail sales +0.1% vs +0.0% expected

• Canadian June 2023 retail sales data and the July advance report

• Prior was +0.2%
• June advance reading was 0.0%
• Ex autos -0.8% vs +0.3% expected (prior was 0.0%, revised to -0.3%)
• July advance reading +0.4%
• June year-over-year sales -0.6% vs +0.5% prior
• Sales ex autos y/y -3.3

Commodities

Silver climbs above $24.00 as weak PMI sends US yields south

• Silver price jumps above $24.00 after S&P Global reported weak preliminary PMI data for August.
• Weak PMI figures demonstrate the consequences of tight monetary policy by the Fed.
• Silver price climbs above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $24.00.

Silver rallies above $24.00 as the US Dollar comes under pressure after S&P Global reported a weak preliminary PMI for August. Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for August at 47.0 underperforms expectations of 49.3 and July’s reading of 49.0. Also, Services PMI remained lower at 51.0 vs. estimates of 52.2 and the former release of 52.3.

Weak PMI figures demonstrate the consequences of tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
US central bank has raised interest rates aggressively to 5.25-5.50% in a war against stubborn inflation.
Price pressures have come significantly lower to 3% but investors hope that inflation in excess of the desired rate will be extremely persistent.

Oil avoids meltdown as weekly EAI is surprise beat on bigger stockpile drawdown

• Oil (WTI) trades off the lows as EAI numbers overshoot bullish estimates. 
• The US Dollar gave markets a knee-jerk reaction after surprise US Dollar strength..
• The weekly API numbers were a disappointing drawdown and could push Oil prices further downwards.

Oil prices are off the lows and erasing partial losses after the weekly important Energy Information Administration (EAI) Crude Oil Stock Changes pointed to a substantial bigger drawdown than expected. The overnight numbers from the American Petroleum Institute came in below estimates and slashed oil prices. The API number printed only a drawdown of -2.418M barrels, where -2.9M was expected. 

Projections of the EAI numbers for Wednesday point to a drawdown for both the high and low estimate. In order to trigger a spike in oil prices, the drawdown this Wednesday had to beat the highest estimation of -3.1M. The lowest estimation was at -2.39M, so any number between the range or less severe than -2.39M could have translated into cheaper oil. The suprise drawdown of over 6M barrels gave oil a boost in order to get off the low of this Wednesday.

US EIA weekly oil inventories -6135K vs -2850 expected

• Weekly inventory data

• Prior was -5960K
• Gasoline +1467K vs -888K expected
• Distillates +945K vs +218K expected
• Refinery utilization -0.2% vs +0.4% expected
• Cushing: -3.133M

API data late yesterday showed:

• Crude -2418K
• Gasoline +1898K
• Distillates -153K

Swiss gold exports down due to lower shipments to China, India

Data from Switzerland on gold shipments in July:

• Swiss gold exports fell 2% in July from June
• exports to China fell by 19% in July to their weakest since May, 2022
• to India fell by 60% to their lowest level since April, 2023

Info via Reuters overnight ICYMI. More here.

Goldman Sachs’ $86 oil forecast, weighing up supply & demand factors, bank is net bullish

Goldman Sachs commodity analysts take a look at the “risk developments” to their forecast for $86 oil by December 2023.

On net, the risk developments … have been bullish-to-mixed over the past month

The bullish developments are:

• The arrival of inventory draws
• The key bullish risk—lower-for-longer OPEC+ supply—has grown with the fall in our Russia supply nowcast and Saudi’s reiterated commitment to cuts and apparent willingness to extend and even deepen cuts.
• Recent Black Sea drone attacks highlight the risk to Russia commodity exports

In contrast, the other key bearish risk—a further rise in Iran supply—has grown

• risk has grown with media reports of a potential US-Iran prisoner swap, and a TankerTrackers estimate that Iran exports of crude and condensates during the first 20 days of August have surged by over 500kb/d to 2.2mb/d.

Finally, China demand news is mixed

• downside risk to our economists’ 2023 GDP growth forecast of 5.4% has grown given the ongoing property slump and the inability of only marginal policy easing to restore confidence
• On the other hand, our China oil demand forecast has been solid this summer …
• This disconnect likely reflects that the weakness in China macro data is quite concentrated outside the oil-intensive services sector, and that China international jet demand is still recovering.

On China:

Two tankers (one LNG, the other, oil products) collided in the Suez Canal

Reuters with the info that two tankers briefly collided in Egypt’s Suez Canal.

• Citing a ship tracking company.
• There was no immediate confirmation from the Suez Canal Authority.

It doesn’t appear that the canal is blocked.

590,000 b/d TMX crude pipeline in Canada will likely start commercial “later” in Q1 2024

Via media reports (Argus) comes news of the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) crude pipeline in western Canada

• will likely start commercial “later” in the first quarter next year
• its entering the final stages of the project
• a specific in-service date is not yet available

The project will connect oil producers in Alberta to an export terminal in British Columbia. It was first proposed in 2013.

EU News

European equity close: The FTSE 100 likes the idea of lower rates

• Closing changes

Good news is bad news for the moment but you can’t sustain a rally on bad news for long.

• Stoxx 600 +0.4%
• German DAX +0.2%
• FTSE 100 +0.7%
• French CAC +0.1%
• Italy MIB +0.3%
• Spain IBEX +0.05%

Eurozone August flash consumer confidence -16.0 vs -14.3 expected

• Early release of August eurozone flash PMI
• Prior was -15.1

Eurozone August flash services PMI 48.3 vs 50.5 expected

• Latest data released by HCOB – 23 August 2023

• Prior 50.9
• Manufacturing PMI 43.7 vs 42.6 expected
• Prior 42.7
• Composite PMI 47.0 vs 48.5 expected
• Prior 48.6

UK August flash services PMI 48.7 vs 51.0 expected

• Latest data released by S&P Global – 23 August 2023

• Prior 51.5
• Manufacturing PMI 42.5 vs 45.0 expected
• Prior 45.3
• Composite PMI 47.9 vs 50.3 expected
• Prior 50.8

Germany August flash manufacturing PMI 39.1 vs 38.7 expected

• Latest data released by HCOB – 23 August 2023

• Prior 38.8
• Services PMI 47.3 vs 51.5 expected
• Prior 52.3
• Composite PMI 44.7 vs 48.3 expected
• Prior 48.5

France August flash services PMI 46.7 vs 47.5 expected

• Latest data released by HCOB – 23 August 2023
• Prior 47.1
• Manufacturing PMI 46.4 vs 45.0 expected
• Prior 45.1
• Composite PMI 46.6 vs 47.5 expected
• Prior 46.6

UK Govt transferred over 14bn GBP to the BoE, largest transfer ever, to cover QE losses

The UK Treasury sent over 14.3bn GBP to the Bank of England in July, which is the biggest state transfer on record, to cover losses on the Bank’s QE steps

• transfers have totalled more than 30 bn GBP in the past 11 months

Numbers come from the UK’s Office for National Statistics.

As part of its QE program the BoE bought UK government bonds with £875 billion it created between 2009 and 2021

• those gilts pay a fixed interest rate to the bank
• the money it created (“central bank reserves”) is held by commercial banks and earns interest at the bank’s main rate
• When interest rates were below 2%, the QE program was profitable for the bank, which transferred the gains backs to the government.With the BOE’s key rate at 5.25%, the program is now deeply in losses with net payments now being made to the commercial banks.

Info comes via a Bloomberg report

Bond yields slump as ECB rate hike bets ease after PMI data

• Odds of a 25 bps rate hike next month are down to ~51% from around ~65% before the data

In particular, the ugly one is Germany’s set of PMI data as it reinforces the risks of a recession in Europe’s biggest economy.10-year German bund yields have now fallen by over 10 bps on the day to 2.55% and that is leading to a broader drag on yields across the market.10-year Treasury yields are also now down 6 bps to 4.268% currently.

Other News

Houses are for living in, not for speculation – China state media

• Some editorial comments made via state-run media, Economic Daily, in China

The editorial says that the phrase insisted by China’s leaders in 2016, being “houses are for living in, not for speculation” should continue to carry more weight especially now.The phrase was removed from the Politburo statement last month and could be interpreted as a signal that tighter rules to the property market could be loosened. But the opinion piece here says that:

“The positioning of “houses are for living in, not for speculation” should be insisted on and is not out of date. In some popular cities, housing demand still exceeds supply. Once speculation on house prices resumes, China may go back to the old path of the over-reliance on the real estate sector, which will have adverse impacts on economic and social development.”

There are rumours that some Chinese banks are freezing some savings accounts – PBOC denies

The People’s Bank of China has denied reports that some banks are permanently freezing some savings accounts.

Says these rumours are not true.

Japan Jibun preliminary August PMIs: Manufacturing 49.7 (prior 49.6) Services 54.3 (53.8)

• Japan S&P Global / Jibun Bank Flash PMIs for August 2023

Manufacturing 49.7, an improvement but still in contraction

• prior 49.6

Services 54.3, improved from July and a strong result

• prior 53.8

Composite 52.6

• prior 52.2

Commentary from the report:

• Growth across the Japanese private sector picked up pace duringAugust, with the service sector again driving the overall expansionamid ongoing improvements in new orders.
• Manufacturing continued to disappoint, however, again failing to generate growth. Nevertheless, the rates of reduction in output and new orders were less pronounced than in July.
• With overall new orders continuing to rise, firms upped their staffing levels accordingly. The weakness in manufacturing demand acted to deter hiring there, however, with no change in employment ending a 28-month sequence of factory job creation.
• Rising oil prices were a key feature across the latest survey, with firms across both manufacturing and services reporting an impact on input costs. Overall, input prices increased at the fastest pace in four months. Another area of common ground across the two monitored sectors was with regards to business confidence, which waned across the board amid concerns around longer-term economic conditions.

BRICS countries agree to expand membership

• AFP cites South Africa’s foreign minister

BRICS leaders (sans Putin) met this week in South Africa and expanding the group has been on the agenda for awhile so this isn’t a surprise. The aim is creating something to counter the G7.

Saudi Arabia is high on the list of countries that would like to join.

New Zealand Q2 Retail Sales -1.0% q/q (expected -2.6%)

• New Zealand Q2 2023 Retail Sales excl. inflation

Consumers have been cutting back in New Zealand in the face of rapid and sustained interest rate hikes. The last two meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have been a bit of a relief with the Bank leaving the cash rate on hold.

Retail sales -1.0% q/q

• expected -2.6%, prior -1.4%

for the y/y -3.5%

• prior -4.1%

Retail sales ex-autos -1.8% q/q

• expected -2.5%, prior -1.1%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist says is mindful of the fall in the NZ dollar

Comments crossing the news wires from the Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

• Is mindful of the fall in NZD
• Says would lower the OCR sooner than we have signalled if there was a more significant slowdown in China than the RBNZ expects

Cryptocurrency News

Tornado Cash developers arrested and charged with laundering more than $1 billion

• Tornado Cash developers have been arrested for laundering over $1 billion for the notorious Lazarus Group, a year after their colleague was arrested.
• Tornado cash is infamously known as a mixing service to increase the anonymity of users’ transactions.
• The US Department of Justice (DOJ) participated in the sanction, unsealing an indictment against two Tornado Cash principals, Semenov and Roman Storm.

Tornado Cash developers, Roman Storm and Roman Semenov, have been arrested on charges of money laundering.Citing Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo on the matter:

Even after they knew the Lazarus Group was laundering hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of stolen virtual currency through their mixing service for the benefit of the Kim regime, Tornado Cash’s founders continued to develop and promote the service and did not take meaningful steps to reduce its use for illicit purposes.

The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned one of the three co-founders, Roman Semenov, claiming that the Russian materially aided Tornado Cash mixing service and the infamous Lazarus Group.

The Lazarus Group is notorious for hacking, with alleged ties to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Exploiters and hackers use Tornado Cash, touted as a virtual mixer, to launder their loot. As such, the service is majorly used by criminals.A paragraph from the official statement by the US Department Of The Treasury reads:

Tornado Cash has been used to launder funds for criminal actors since its creation in 2019, including obfuscating hundreds of millions of dollars in virtual currency stolen by Lazarus Group hackers.

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) participated in the sanction, unsealing an indictment against two Tornado Cash principals, Semenov and Roman Storm. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in collaboration with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) arrested Storm on August 23.

The DOJ is charging the two principals for:

• Conspiracy to commit money laundering
• Conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business, and
• Conspiracy to commit sanctions violations

There is a third player in the mix, Alexey Pertsev, also a principal, who was arrested on similar charges in the Netherlands by Dutch law enforcement. This happened in August 2022 but was released around April 21 to await trial at home.

Bearish crypto markets fear hawkish Powell at Jackson Hole: scenarios for Bitcoin

• Bitcoin suffered a sharp sell-off last week, sending BTC price to the $25,000 level. 
• BTC price has typically reacted negatively to developments in the Jackson Hole Symposium over the past four years. 
• With 88.3% of short-term Bitcoin holders sitting on unrealized losses, BTC price is likely to remain under pressure this week.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday has the potential to trigger volatility for Bitcoin price and more broadly cryptocurrency markets, which have recently recorded sharp falls alongside other risk assets.

Bitcoin price sustains above the key $25,000 level, broadly unchanged since the sharp decline seen on August 18 as investors appear to be cautious ahead of the key meeting, to be held between Thursday and Saturday.

Papers shared in the symposium will shed light on the rapidly shifting monetary policy stance and the Fed’s policy response and its aftermath, in the context of the next decade.But the main focus will be on Powell’s speech, expected on Friday at 14:05 GMT.Fed Chairs generally use this meeting to signal policy shifts, but it is uncertain what Powell will do this time.

Bitcoin investors are expecting interest rates to be higher for longer, partly explaining the selling pressure on the asset and its struggle to recover to the key psychological level of $30,000.If Powell asserts a hawkish message and reinforces expectations for additional rate hikes, BTC price could plummet lower in response.

However, a scenario in which Powell welcomes the slowdown in inflation and signals that interest rates don’t need to be lifted any more, would likely increase demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

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