North American News
Major US indices close little changed.Low to high trading ranges are the lowest since 2021
- Modest declines for the trading week
The markets traded in relatively narrow trading range today and for the week.
Looking at the low to high trading ranges for the major indices:
- The NASDAQ index range for the week was only 258 points. That was the lowest range since December 2021.
- The S&P index range for the week was 55.62 points. That is the lowest range going back to November 2021.
- The Dow Jones industrial average range of 340.88 points was its lowest range going back to August 2021.
In trading today, the major indices are closing with modest gains. The final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average was 22.45 points or 0.07% at 33809.10
- S&P index up 3.73 points or 0.09% at 4133.53
- NASDAQ index of 12.89 points or 0.11% at 12072.45
- Russell 2000 rose 1.808 points or 0.10% at 1791.50
For the trading week, all the major indices closed lower:
- Dow industrial average fell -0.23%. The decline was the 1st decline after 4 weeks of gains.
- S&P index fell -0.10%
- NASDAQ index fell -0.42%
- Russell 2000 bucked the trend with a gain of 0.58%
Earnings calendar for next week highlighted by Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Intel.
- Biggest earnings week for the quarter
Next week is arguably the biggest one for the earnings for the quarter. There are a number of big cap companies on the calendar, with the potential to surprise and send stock prices higher or lower Moreover with the economy sitting on the fence (soft landing? hard landing? no landing?), forecast for forward earnings will also be dissected by market traders.
Below is a list of the major announcements by day:
Monday, April 24
- Whirlpool
- Coca-Cola
- First Republic Bank
Tuesday, April 25
- Microsoft
- Alphabet
- 3M
- GM
- UPS
- McDonald’s
Wednesday, April 26
- Meta
- Boeing
- Hilton
- Mattel
- eBay
- Norfork Southern
Thursday, April 27
- Amazon
- Intel
- Caterpillar
- Merck
- Southwest Airlines
Friday, April 28
- Chevron
- Exxon Mobil
- Colgate-Palmolive
- Sony
S&P Global US April flash services PMI 53.7 vs 51.5 expected
- The April 2023 services and manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global
- Prior was 52.6
- Manufacturing 50.4 vs 49.0 expected
- Prior manufacturing was 49.2
- Composite 53.5 vs 52.3 prior
- New orders increased at the sharpest rate for 11 months
- The services rate of inflation increased at a sharper pace.
- Services business confidence was the 2nd highest in a year
US five-year credit default swaps rise to 51 basis points
- Highest level since 2012
A headline from S&P global market is out saying:
- five-year credit default swaps rise at to 51 basis points
- highest level since 2012.
Canada February retail sales -0.2% vs -0.6% expected
- Canadian February 2023 retail sales data
- Prior was +1.4% (revised to +1.6%)
- Advanced flash estimate was +0.6%
- Ex autos -0.7% versus -0.1% expected.
- Prior ex autos +0.9%
- Ex auto and gas +0.1%
- Advanced retail sales for March -1.4%
Commodities
Gold sinks below $2,000 as US PMIs improve and recession fears fade
- Gold price dives on a surprisingly positive US S&P Global PMIs.
- Improvement in business activity in the US bolstered the US Dollar.
- The US Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates by 25 bps at the May meeting – FedWatch Tool.
Gold price plunges below $2,000 and hit a daily low of $1,971.74 after the release of economic data from the United States (US) showed that the economy continues to expand, despite recent reports flashing a recession. Therefore, XAU/USD is trading at $1,982.78, losses 1.07%, at the time of writing.
US business activity picked up, Gold tumbles
S&P Global reported the final PMI readings for the US, which surprised most investors, which were caught off guard, as shown by the market’s reaction. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, above 49 estimates, while the Services rose to 53.7, exceeding the consensus of 51.5. Therefore, the Composite reading was 53.5, above its previous reading.
As a result, XAU/USD spiked to $1,997.95 before tanking toward a two-day low of $1971.30, $1.5 above the S3 daily pivot point and shy of testing the weekly low of $1,968.80. Conversely, US Treasury bond yields climbed, as the report signals that inflation could rise, with 2s and 10s, gaining each three basis points, at 4.184% and 3.564%, respectively.
In the meantime, the CME FedWatch Tool, which forecasts the next move of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), keeps odds at 88% for a 25 bps rate hike at the May 2-3 meeting. Hence, the greenback is pairing some of its Thursday’s losses, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance vs. six peers, up at 0.14% at 101.936.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve officials crossed newswires. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested the US central bank is close to ending its campaign to control inflation. At the same time, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester believes rates should go above 5% due to high inflation. The current benchmark rate is between 4.75% and 5%.
Next on the agenda, the Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will cross newswires ahead of the media blackout that Fed officials would begin, ending with the Fed Chair Powell press conference on May 3.
Four week oil rally ends as crude falls into the ‘gap’
- Oil higher on Friday but lower on the week
WTI crude oil settled on Friday up by 50 cents to $77.87. It’s a better end to a disappointing week for the oil bulls.
It started with strong China retail sales data, included a US inventory drawdown and finished with an impressive US PMI from S&P Global but crude couldn’t get any traction. Technical selling hit when it fell below $79.00 and into the post-OPEC cut ‘gap’, triggering a fall to as low as $76.21 yesterday.
EU News
European equity close: Nice finish caps off a weekly gain
- Closing changes to the main European bourses
Daily changes:
- Stoxx 600 +0.25%
- German DAX +0.5%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.1%
- French CAC +0.35%
- Spain IBEX -0.4%
- Italy MIB +0.3%
Weekly changes:
- Stoxx 600 +0.1%
- German DAX +0.4%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.5%
- French CAC +0.6%
ECB’s Rehn warns against early withdrawal of restrictive monetary policy
- Remarks by ECB policymaker, Olli Rehn
- We have moved policy to an area that restricts aggregate demand
- There is no reason for us to abandon it or exit it prematurely
- The path to sustainable growth is narrow
- But it can be traversed with a proactive, balanced policy
Other News
The Federal Reserve heads into the blackout period tomorrow
- No speakers on the agenda today
The Federal Reserve has set the stage for a May 3 hike of 25 basis points.
That’s 90% priced in and Fed officials are likely comfortable with that, given the latest round of communication. Starting at midnight, they won’t have a fresh opportunity to manage market expectations, unless it’s via a leak.
Cryptocurrency News
Another bitcoin whale awakes, transfers $7.8 million after a decade of dormancy
- After a decade of slumber, a crypto wallet transferred 279 bitcoins — worth $7.8 million — to three fresh addresses today.
The wallet in question received 1,128 bitcoins in October 2012 and May 2013. The price of bitcoin during those transfers was approximately $12 and $195 per coin, respectively.
This latest transfer comes a day after another long-dormant bitcoin whale transferred 2,071.5 BTC — worth $60.7 million — yesterday after nine years of inactivity.
While the reason for the move is unknown, there still exists speculation that some long-time crypto users are moving old funds to new wallets amid a significant (and mysterious) wallet-draining operation allegedly targeting old wallets.
Polkadot: Three signs that forecast a 15% decline
- Polkadot price reveals a technical breakdown since Wednesday’s peak.
- DOT primed for another leg lower each time lower support does not hold.
- Expect to see a 15% slide back to the low of March.
Polkadot (DOT) price is on the verge of sinking another 15% while it has already slid 15%. The decline comes after the peak on Wednesday was followed by a technical rejection and a string of breakdowns in support levels. Traders need to monitor this pattern in the coming sessions to time when the bearish powers are outplayed and a bullish upswing re-emerges.
Polkadot price has feeble support levels
Polkadot price peaked near $7.00 on Wednesday before it started to tank quite severely after it got a firm rejection at that level. Price action tanked toward $6.23 where a pivotal level and the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) came in for support. What followed was first a test and a small bounce with the second test breaking substantially below the same support.
DOT sees the same pattern emerging on Friday with a break on the monthly pivot. DOT is bound for a firm break below it as the rebound is losing force quickly. Expect DOT to collapse to $5.74 and next starts to paint a similar pattern again in that area. If that level breaks as well, $5.31 appears to be the last man standing in order to at least halt this sell-off with a full 30% decline from top to bottom.
Like our recently launched pages. Join our community and never miss a beat in the dynamic world of trading.
https://www.facebook.com/BilalsTechLtd
https://www.linkedin.com/company/bilals-tech/
