North American News
Major US indices close the day lower
- Consistent declines amongst the three major indices
The slowdown in the economy was more evident in the economic data today. Factory orders came in weaker than expected as did the JOLTs job openings.
The major indices all moved lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 index was the largest decliner with a tumble of -1.81%. The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ index or closed lower by about -0.5% to -0.6%.
Snapshot of the final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average -198.79 points or -0.59% at 33402.39
- S&P index -23.89 points are -0.58% at 4100.61
- NASDAQ index -63.14 points or -0.52% at 12126.32.
- Russell 2000- 32.65 points or -1.81% at 1769.65
Looking at the Dow 30, the biggest decliner was Caterpillar which fell -5.4%. 3M fell -2.22% and Travelers fell -2.10%.
The biggest winners were led by Nike up 1.68%. Amgen rose by 1.26% and Walgreens Boots rose by 1.10%
JOLTs job openings for February 9.931M. vs 10.4M estimate
- JOLTs data for February 2023
- Prior month 10.824M (est. 10.5M) revised to 10.563M
- Job Openings for February 2023 moves to 9.931M vs 10.4M estimate and 10.563M last month
- Quits rate 2.6% vs 2.5% last month. Total quits came in at 4.024 million versus 3.878 million was more than
- Hires 4.0% vs 4.1% last month. Total hires came in at 6.163 million versus 6.327 million last month
- Separations 3.7% of versus 3.8% last month. Total separations came in at 5.82 million versus 5.90 million last month
US February factory orders -0.7% vs -0.5% expected
- US February 2023 factory order data
- Prior was -1.6%
- Factory orders ex transportation -0.3% versus +1.2% prior
- Shipments vs +0.7% prior
US 10 year yield approaches key support floor
- Floor area between 3.287% and 3.334%
The US 10 year yield is approaching a key support floor coming in between 3.287% and 3.334%. The current yield is trading at 3.352%. A break below that level would take the yield to the lowest level since September 2022, and have traders targeting the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the August 2022 low which comes in at 3.211%.
Commodities
Gold jumps to the highest in a year. Citi sees $2300
- Big day for gold as it bounds above $2000 with a $35 gain
Gold is going for it.
A slump in the US dollar on soft job openings data has the market feeling more confident that Fed funds are near a peak and that rate cuts are coming. That’s led to a big bid in gold as it races through $2000 to $2020, up $35 on the day. It’s the best level since a brief rally above $2000 early in the Ukraine war.
Zooming out further, you can see the trouble that gold has had with the $2000 level in the past. The previous peaks were $2072 and $2069 so it will need to get through that area — preferably on a weekly close before it makes a run at higher levels.
Silver buyers eye $25.00 after breaking resistance around $24.25
- XAG/USD’s breakout of technical resistance opened the door to testing $25.00.
- XAG/USD’s pullback would expose a prior’s resistance trendline turned support around $24.25.
Silver price is eyeing to extend its gains past the $25.00 a troy ounce after hitting a new YTD high at $24.98. Since then, the XAG/USD retreaded some of those gains and hovers around the $24.80-$24.95 area, gaining 4.03%.
XAG/USD Price action
From a daily chart perspective, the XAG/USD is upward biased. The break of a four-month-old downslope resistance trendline opened XAG’s door to test the $25.00 mark, which, once cleared, could pave the way for further upside, with risks at April 18 daily high at $26.21, followed by 2022 high at $26.94.
Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered overbought conditions, but remained below 80, seen as the overbought peak, after a strong uptrend. The Rate of Change (RoC) continues to push higher, though it remains shy of hitting its peak after the RoC soared after Silver’s bottom was around $19.92.
In the event of a pullback, XAG/USD’s first support would be the four-month-old resistance trendline turned support at $24.20-35, followed by the $24.00 psychological level. Once broken, that would exacerbate a dip towards the hanging man low at $23.57.
US crude oil settles at $80.71. Trades above 50% of move down from November high.
- Up $0.29 or 0.36%. What’s next?
The price of WTI crude oil futures traded up and down in trading today. The high price reached $81.81. The low price extended to $79.61. Yesterday the price settled at $80.42.
EU News
European equity close: Mostly lower as early gains erased
- Closing changes for the main European bourses
Closing changes for the main European bourses:
- Stoxx 600 -0.1%
- German DAX +0.2%
- UK FTSE 100 -0.5%
- French CAC +0.1%
- Italy MIB -0.6%
- Spain IBEX +0.3%
ECB’s Makhlouf: Policy rate will need to be kept at a restrictive level to dampen demand
- Comments from Makhlouf
- Short-term volatility in financial markets does not translate into risks for the macroeconomic outlook
- Must remain steadfast and ready to act as required to ensure we reach our target over the medium-term
- Must remain alert to the longer lags in the transmission of monetary policy to growth and inflation
- If we end up in a wage-price spiral, it would call for stronger monetary response but so far there has been no indication that expectations have become de-anchored
Other News
Trump pleads not guilty to 34 felony counts
- Trump pleads not guilty in a New York court
The details of the charges still haven’t been released but include falsifying records. The judge in the case was revealed as Juan Merchan.
Trump plans to give a speech tonight back in Florida at Mar-a-Lago. The Manhattan DA’s office will also hold a press conference.
BOE’s Pill: Given lags in monetary policy transmission, there is a lot still in pipeline
- Comments from the Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill
Here’s the summary from the BOE:
- Given the lags in monetary policy transmission, there is a lot of policy-in-the-pipeline still to come through
- Although headline inflation is set to fall significantly in the course of this year owing to a combination of base effects and falls in energy prices, caution is still needed in assessing inflation prospects on account of the potential persistence of domestically generated inflation
- At the next MPC meeting in early May, we will benefit from a comprehensive assessment of the outlook embodied in a new forecast.
- On that occasion, I will come to my own conclusions about Bank Rate on the basis of my assessment of the data flow and its interpretation in the forecast analysis.
Cryptocurrency News
Ripple price shows signs of imminent 20% upswing as fundamentals scream ‘Buy now’
- Ripple price found support after the profit-taking from its rally last week.
- XRP sees a clear technical pattern emerging, pointing to heavy buying at the dips.
- Expect price action to repeat its performance from last week with a retest at $0.5852.
Ripple (XRP) price has been going fast and hard in both directions this past trading week with a greater than 35% price swing from top to bottom in seven trading days. As XRP price dropped after heavy profit-taking, the price looks to be rebounding now. With clear technical support identified and the relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50, XRP’s charts are screaming to buy now before it hits $0.5852 again on the topside.
Ripple price forming double top would be the best scenario yet
Ripple price was unleashed last week as volatility soared to new highs, hitting $0.5852 on the topside, a level not seen since May 2022. Unfortunately, a firm rejection and a large fade of profit-taking occurred. XRP plunged lower quite quickly in search of much-needed support.
XRP saw $0.48 stepping in and doing the trick again with a firm bounce higher up toward $0.50. As price action is near that level now, buying some stake in XRP makes more sense as the RSI trades below 50. While bulls are building up stakes again, a revisit of $0.5852 is inevitable and makes it perfect for a double-top formation with another 20% gain.
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