North American News
US stocks closed higher for the day and for the week
- NASDAQ leads the gains for the week
The major US stock indices are closing higher for the day, and higher for the week. For the trading year, the Dow industrial average is still down on the year but the S&P and the NASDAQ index are positive
A snapshot of the closing levels for the day shows:
- Dow industrial average up 132.28 points or 0.41% at 32237.54. At intraday lows, the index was down -300.08 points
- S&P index up 22.27 points or 0.56% at 3970.98. At intraday lows, the S&P index was down -39.55 points
- NASDAQ index up 36.57 points or 0.31% at 11823.97. Intraday lows reached -116.73 points.
- The Russell 2000 up 14.63 points or 0.85% at 1734.92. The low for the day was down -25.05 points
For the trading week,
- Dow industrial average rose 1.18%
- S&P index rose 1.39%
- NASDAQ index rose 1.66%
- Russell 2000 rose 0.52%
S&P Global March flash US services PMI 53.8 vs 50.5 expected
- PMIs for the US from S&P Global
- Prior was 50.6
- Manufacturing 49.3 vs 47.0 expected
- Prior manufacturing 47.8
- Composite 53.3 vs 50.1 prior
Fed’s Bullard: Sees 80% chance financial stress abates
- The latest projections suggest one more rate hike. The timing of the rate hike will be up to the chair to determine
- US remains in a position to see disinflation in 2023, will see if Fed needs to react more or not
- Expects Fed will be dealing more with the strong economy into the spring and summer months and not worrying as much about financial stresses
- Could be downside if financial stress gets worse and would react to that
- Wide variety of jobs data pointing to continued strong labor market
- In most likely scenario, Fed will have to ‘ratchet up’ more as financial stress abates and economy remains strong
- Sees 80% chance financial stress abates and discussion shifts back to inflation; a lower-probability outcome is recession
- Probability of global crisis from recent stress is low
- Inflation expectations relatively low, a good sign for disinflation this year
- US response to bank stress has been swift and appropriate
- Regulators can do more as needed to contain financial stress
- It’s not uncommon for some firms to fail to adjust to changing financial conditions
Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow tracker 3.2% vs 3.2% prior
- As the quarter continues, the numbers stay healthy
The consensus at the start of the quarter was that we were close to a recession, instead it’s shaping up to be another quarter of strong growth.
Fed Barkin: The case for raising rates this week was pretty clear
- Richmond Fed Pres. Thomas Barkin
Richmond Fed Pres. Thomas Barkin (nonvoting member in 2023) in an interview with CNN said:
- Case for raising rates this week was pretty clear
- Labor markets are tight
- People hate inflation. Inflation is unfair
- People want the Fed to get control of inflation
- Bringing inflation down creates better conditions for jobs
- The economy remains it too high that
- Every decision is hard and fully debated
Commodities
Gold back under pressure as markets correct its rate cut expectations – Commerzbank
Gold price back at $2,000 after Fed meeting. Economists at Commerzbank expect the yellow metal to see renewed downside pressure as the market will be forced to correct its expectation of a rapid interest rate turnaround again.
Robust Swiss Gold exports to Asia in February
“Currently the market expects key rates in the US to be lowered before year’s end, which has recently lent buoyancy to the Gold price again. However, we believe that the market will be forced to correct its expectation of a rapid interest rate turnaround again. This is likely to put XAU/USD back under pressure.”
“The fact that the price level has repercussions for physical demand should not be ignored: Swiss Gold exports indicate that demand for Gold in China and India, in February at least, was considerably higher because prices were lower then. China’s gold imports from Hong Kong should likewise turn out to have been correspondingly robust.”
WTI crude oil sales at $69.26
- Down $0.70 or -1.0%
The price of WTI crude oil futures is settling at $69.26. That’s down $0.70 or -1.0%.. The low-price reached $66.82. The high price extended to $70.38. For the trading week, the price is up $3.47 or 2.32% from the close last Friday.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the price is settling near the 100 and 200 hour moving averages which are near converged at $69.20. The low-price this week was reached on Monday at $64.36. The high price extended to $71.67 during yesterday’s trade. With the price near the converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages, the market is setting up for a move away from those levels in the new trading week. However, traders are unsure which way it wants to go. The moving averages will be be the close barometer for more bullish and more bearish next week. Trade above will be more bullish/trade below would be more bearish.
EU News
Major European indices close sharply lower. Italy and Spain lead the declines
- Credit default swap prices increase as investors fear banking issues
The European major indices including the sharply lower on the day. Italy and Spain believed that the declines. Concerns about banks led by Deutsche Bank decline of -6.75%. However it could have been worse. Deutsche Bank’s shares moved to a low intraday price of $7.96. The shares are closing near $8.70.
A snapshot of the closing levels shows:
- German DAX -1.66%
- Frances CAC -1.74%
- UK’s FTSE 100 -1.26%
- Spain’s Ibex -1.98%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.0%
Despite the declines today, the major indices are ending the week higher
- German DAX, +1.28%
- Frances CAC +1.3%
- UK’s FTSE 100 +0.95%
- Spain’s Ibex +0.85%
Other News
Yellen convenes private meeting of financial stabilty oversight council
- Yellen to meet with council this morning
This headline has crossed and there were some positive ticks in risk assets, likely on the hope that some help is coming.
BOE’s Mann: I voted for 25 bps partly because inflation expectations began to moderate
- Comment from Mann
- My vote for 25 bps this month was partly because inflation expectations had started to moderate
- Feb retail sales data are pretty robust
Cryptocurrency News
Solana price joins Bitcoin price slide as SOL flirts with break below $20 for 10% decline
- Solana price dives below $22 as the 55-day SMA sees price action slip away.
- SOL nosedives together with other crypto and blockchain currencies in a global sell-off.
- The decline could hold the risk that SOL slides back into a bearish pattern.
Solana (SOL) price says goodbye to the crucial 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as bulls cannot hold on to it. In a synchronized move, several major cryptocurrencies and altcoins are trading lower as turmoil worldwide and in several asset classes such as banking picks up. Expect SOL to slide below $20 and be in danger of entering a bearish triangle formation.
Solana price falling 10% is not the issue but rather what lies ahead
Solana price is having a tough Friday as market turmoil is raging through all asset classes as big fears arise in the global banking system with Deutsche Bank’s bond prices cratering. Just as headlines are emerging on the possibility of a Chinese regulatory crackdown on Binance, the exchange needs to halt deposits and withdrawals as spot trading is halted. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are taking a turn for the worse.
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