North American News
Major US indices close sharply lower ahead of the key jobs report tomorrow
- NASDAQ index falls over 2%
The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower on the day. The declines are led by the NASDAQ index which fell over 2%. Technically, all three major indices moved and closed below their 200 day moving averages.
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow Industrial Average -543.56 points or -1.66% at 32254.85
- S&P index fell -73.67 points or -1.85% at 3918.33
- NASDAQ index of fell -237.66 points or -2.05% at 11338.34
US treasury auctions off $18 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 3.877%
- WI level at the time of the auction 3.871%
- High-yield 3.877%
- WI level at the time of the auction 3.871%
- Bid to cover 2.35X vs 2.36X six month average
- Tail 0.6 bps vs +0.1 basis points six month average
- Directs (a measure of domestic demand) 19.84% vs 19.1% six month average
- Indirect (a measure of international demand) 70.72% vs 68.9% six month average
- Dealers (they take the rest) 9.45% vs. 12.2% six month average
US weekly initial jobless claims 211K vs 195K expected
- US weekly initial jobless claims data
- Prior was 190K (unrevised)
- Four-week moving average 197K vs 193K prior
- Continuing claims 1718K vs 1659K expected
- Prior continuing claims 1655K
- Unadjusted claims 237K
US February Challenger layoffs 77.77k vs 102.94k prior
- Latest data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. – 9 March 2023
- Prior 102.94k
US mortgage rates continue to tick up, rising to 6.73% from 6.65% prior
The space between 6 and 7% is what I’m thinking about now. Home buying picked up again at the turn of the year as the 30-year fixed fell to 6% and some were even available below that. Now rates are picking back up, though home builders are trying to compensate for that with two-year buy downs.
Commodities
Gold advances steadily toward $1830 ahead of US NFP
- Gold price jumps off the week’s lows, around $1810s, despite Fed’s Powell hawkish remarks.
- US Initial Jobless Claims rose above estimates, signaling that the labor market is cooling.
- XAU/USD Price Analysis: Neutral upwards, but downside risks remain.
Gold price climbs sharply in the North American session after dropping more than 1.70% on Tuesday. Hawkish remarks by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at his appearance at the US Congress bolstered the US Dollar (USD). However, the US employment and inflation figures on Friday and the next week could influence the Fed’s path on interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1831.87 after hitting a low of $1812.09.
WTI crude oil settles at $75.73
- Down -$0.94 or -1.23%
The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $75.73. That’s down $0.94 or -1.23%. The high price reached $78.01. The low price extended to $75.63. The price is closing near its lows for the day.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the move to the upside was able to get back above the 200 hour moving average near $77.62, but could not extend back above the 100 hour moving average at $78.24. The last four hours has seen steady selling.
EU News
European equity close: Mostly lower but DAX unchanged
- Closing changes in Europe
European stocks fell at the open and continued lower but steadied with the US open and rebounded from there to close moderately lower or flat.
- Stoxx 600 -0.2%
- FTSE 100 -0.6%
- German DAX flat
- French CAC -0.1%
- Italy MIB -0.6%
- Spain IBEX -0.4%
Other News
China February inflation data: CPI 1.0% y/y (expected 1.9%) & PPI -1.4% y/y (exp. -1.3%)
China data for February 2023. Inflation well under target according to the official surveys.
CPI
- -0.5% m/m vs. +0.2% expected and +0.8% in January
- +1.0% y/y vs. expected +1.9% and +2.1% in January
PPI
- 0.0%, flat, m/m
- -1.4% y/y vs. expected -1.3% and -0.8% in January
Australia to lift COVID testing requirements for visitors from China starting March 11
This will go down well in China.
And help boost tourism to Australia also.
Massive Russian air and sea attack in Ukraine
Various sources reporting a bigger than usual operation underway, an air attack (missiles).
- reports of hits in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson
- launches from aircraft and ships in the Black Sea
- reports it’s a ‘saturation attack’
Cryptocurrency News
Fed’s Barr: Crypto still potentially transformative but needs appropriate guardrails
- Comments from Fed chair for supervision Barr
The regulatory pendulum continues to swing in the wrong direction for crypto bulls.
Will Bitcoin begin its recovery rally ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data?
- Nonfarm Payrolls in the US are forecast to increase by 205,000 in February, after a surprising uptick in January.
- Jerome Powell’s relatively hawkish statement on Tuesday pushed Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices lower.
- If upcoming jobs and inflation data beat expectations, the Fed will likely deliver a bigger interest rate hike, pushing BTC and crypto lower.
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