North American News
US stocks give back some of the gains from yesterday
- Stocks lower across the board
US stocks give back some/most of the gains from yesterday. Yesterday, the major indices showed:
- Dow up +265.67 points
- S&P up +52.9 points
- Nasdaq up +226.34 points
Today, a look at the final numbers are showing:
- Dow Industrial Average fell -207.51 points or -0.61% at 33949.21
- S&P index fell -46.09 points or -1.11% ast 4117.90. The 4100 level remains a key level to eye going forward
- Nasdaq index fell -203.26 points or -1.68% at 11910.53
- Russell 2000 fell -30.00 points or -1.52% at 1942.59
After the close Disney reported earnings:
- Revenues $23.51B vs $23.37B est
- EPS $0.99 vs $0.78
- Disney shares are up 3% in after hours trading.
Wynn Resorts reported:
- Rev of $1.0B vs estimate of $958M est
- EPS – $1.23 vs -$1.17
US treasury auctions off $40B of 10 year at high yield of 3.613%
- WI level at the time of the auction 3.643%
The US treasury auctioned off $40B of 10 year bonds:
- High yield 3.613%
- WI level at the time of the auction 3.643%
- Tail -3 BPS. Six-month average of -0.5 basis points
- Bid to cover 2.66X vs six-month average of 2.39X
- Directs (a measure of domestic demand) 15.19% versus 18.6% six-month average.
- Indirects 79.45% vs six-month average of 62.9%
- Dealers 5.36% vs 18.5% six-month average
Fed’s Kashkari: We will need to do more, but how much more is not clear
- Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President
- On inflation, not much evidence that rate hikes so far have had much effect on the labor market
- Wage growth now is too high to support inflation
Kashkari is generally a dove but he’s growing increasingly hawkish.
Fed’s Waller: The job on inflation isn’t done, it might be a ‘long fight’
- Comments from the Fed’s Waller
- Some moderation seen in compensation but not enough
- Needs to see continued moderation in inflation before his outlook changes
- Recent trend in inflation ‘encouraging’ but need to be confident inflation is declining
- Fed will need to keep ‘tight stance’ on policy for some time to slow activity further in 2023
- Says he is not seeing signals of a quick decline in inflation, prepared for a longer fight
This isn’t materially different than what he said before the FOMC and non-farm payrolls. The FED has long warned that they wanted to keep rates higher for longer, it’s just that previously the market didn’t believe it.
Commodities
Gold stays firm at around $1875 despite a strong US Dollar as US real yields fall
- Gold price is printing minimal gains of 0.14%, bolstered by lower US real yields.
- Federal Reserve officials remain committed to tackling high inflation in the US, as said by Fed’s Williams and Cook.
- Gold Price Forecast: Sideways, after diving from the YTD high to the 50-DMA.
Gold price is almost flat during the North American session, meandering around the $1870 area after hitting a daily high of $1886.35, though it failed to gain traction as the US Dollar (USD) pares some of its earlier losses. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at around $1875, above its opening price.
WTI crude oil futures settle at $78.47
- Up $1.33 or 1.78%
The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $78.47. That’s up $1.33 or 1.78%. Yesterday the price settled at $77.14.
The low price today reached $77.08. The high price extended up to $78.57.
EU News
European equity close: A strong day turns into a modest win due to late selling
- Closing changes in Europe
- Stoxx 600 +0.3%
- German DAX +0.6%
- Francis CAC -0.1%
- UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%
- Spain’s Ibex +0.7%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4%
ECB Kazaks: No reason to pause or stop rate hikes after March
- The ECB’s Lagarde targeted another 50 bps in March
ECB Kazaks says:
- There is no reason to pause or stop hikes after March
- Rates must hit significantly restrictive levels
- Markets should listen to Lagarde
Other News
NATO’s Stoltenberg: Moscow is preparing for new military offensives
- Arguably, Russia has already started
Arguably, the Russian offensive has already started in the south, where they’ve opened up a broad front. There were also strikes in the past day on the Sumy and Chernihiv regions in the north, two areas that haven’t been hit in awhile.
There are all kinds of rumors floating around but one is a three-pronged push from the north, east and south, likely to try and take all of Ukraine east of the Dniper, or at least enough to tie up Ukraine defenses in order to take the Donbass and/or other annex regions. The Battle for Bakhmut appears to be tilting towards Russia.
Russian Embassy: Delivering British figher jets to Ukraine would have consequences
- Russia//Ukraine conflict
- Deliveries of fighter jets would have both political and military consequences for UK and all of Europe.
A geopolitical risk for markets remains the Ukraine/Russian conflict. Admittedly, that risk could go both ways, although Russia tries to ramp up the fear factor.
Cryptocurrency News
If Ethereum price cannot make it past $1,800, ETH could crash 15%
- Ethereum price would need to push past $1,718 in order to flip $1,760 into a support floor.
- The growing bearishness on price indicators suggests ETH could correct and invalidate the recent recovery to decline to $1,423
- If the altcoin breaches $1,718, it will invalidate the bearish thesis, pushing the price toward $1,800.
Ethereum price has been in a macro uptrend even when most of the other altcoins have been stuck in consolidation. The consistent rise in price has already helped ETH recover its losses from November 2022. Investors are now optimistic about a further recovery which is visible in the market’s sentiment as well.
The Crypto Fear and Greed index, which highlights the active sentiment in the market, recovered from a state of fear starting in January. The index is currently indicating rising greed in the market which could result in buyers pushing the price higher. However, in the case of Ethereum, price indicators might have something different to say.
Ethereum price set for a breach or slip
Ethereum price has risen by nearly 40% in the span of a month to trade at $1,672 at the time of writing. Penetrating the resistance block from $1,641 to $1,761, the altcoin king is advancing toward tagging the critical resistance at the upper limit of the block.
However, before the Ethereum price flips $1,761 into support, the cryptocurrency will have to breach the resistance level of $1,718. The last time ETH managed even to tag the critical resistance level was almost six months ago, and since then, attempts failed before $1,641 could be turned into a support floor. This is the likely route the Ethereum price might take going forward, as price indicators support the same bearish outlook.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator maintains the bearish crossover it noted about ten days ago. The signal line (red) crossing over the MACD line (blue) suggested a change in trend could be incoming.
Secondly, the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) indicator is losing the strength of its active uptrend. The blue dots of the indicator will move above the candlesticks if ETH faces rejection at $1,718.
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