Week Ahead Economic Data highlights a packed schedule featuring delayed US consumption figures, a pivotal rate decision from New Zealand, and the highly anticipated UK fiscal statement. Markets will also navigate US Thanksgiving closures and critical earnings reports from major tech and retail firms.
Weekly Calendar Overview
- MON: German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Bank of Israel Announcement.
- TUE: US Retail Sales (Sep/Delayed), US Consumer Confidence (Nov), PBoC MLF, Richmond Fed (Nov).
- WED: RBNZ Announcement, UK Autumn Budget, Australian CPI (Oct), US Dallas Fed (Oct).
- THU: US Thanksgiving (Markets Closed), ECB Minutes (Oct), BoK Announcement, Tokyo CPI (Nov), Chinese Industrial Profit (Oct).
- FRI: Canadian GDP (Q3), German Unemployment (Nov), US Chicago PMI (Nov), Indian GDP (Q3), Eurozone HICP Data.
Key Economic Events
US Retail Sales (Tuesday)
The week ahead economic data is headlined by the rescheduled US September retail sales figures, delayed previously due to the government shutdown. Markets expect headline month-over-month numbers to rise 0.4%, with the Ex-Autos figure anticipated at 0.3%. Bank of America’s consumer checkpoint data indicates a 2% year-over-year increase in total card spending for September. While lower-income households are showing signs of recovery, growth remains muted compared to higher-income groups benefiting from wealth effects. This release will be critical in gauging consumer health amid softening wage gains.
PBoC MLF (Tuesday)
The People’s Bank of China maintained its 1-year LPR at 3.0% and 5-year at 3.5% for the sixth consecutive month. This decision suggests a reduced urgency for immediate easing following the US–China trade truce, despite weaker retail sales and loan growth in October. Goldman Sachs predicts the bank may delay further rate or RRR cuts until Q1 2026.
RBNZ Announcement (Wednesday)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.25%. Market pricing assigns a 98% probability to this move. Westpac forecasts a dovish tone, predicting a low of 2.20% by early 2026 to help rebalance demand and leverage the weaker NZD.
UK Autumn Budget (Wednesday)
Chancellor Reeves faces the challenge of plugging a GBP 20-35 billion fiscal hole while attempting to preserve the growth narrative. The strategy likely involves increasing smaller taxes rather than income tax, aiming for a “one and done” budget to reassure markets. Bond traders will be watching the Debt Management Office remit closely; the path of least resistance for Gilts appears higher, barring significant political fallout.
Australian CPI (Wednesday)
While specific expectations are pending, the data follows the RBA’s cautious November minutes which highlighted persistent inflation. The RBA remains in a “lightly restrictive” stance, with ANZ forecasting a rate cut only in the first half of 2026 if inflation moderates significantly.
ECB Minutes (Thursday)
The European Central Bank held rates at 2.00% in October, citing confidence that underlying inflation aligns with targets. President Lagarde described policy as being in a “good place.” Investors will scour the minutes for insights into the December meeting, though markets currently price in minimal easing.
Bank of Korea (Thursday)
The BoK is expected to hold the Base Rate at 2.5%. Policymakers continue to balance household debt risks against the need to support growth amid uncertainties regarding US trade tensions.
Tokyo CPI (Thursday)
Following a stronger-than-expected 2.8% rise in October, analysts expect core CPI to hover near 2.5% through year-end, supported by wage growth. Inflation pressures may ease early next year due to government fuel tax cuts.
Canadian GDP (Friday)
Canada releases Q3 and September GDP data, with estimates pointing to a slight 0.1% rise. With the Bank of Canada signaling current rates are appropriate, a significant data surprise would be required to prompt renewed cutting.
Corporate Earnings Highlights
The week ahead economic data is complemented by a busy earnings slate:
- Alibaba Group (BABA): Reports Tuesday AM. Consensus estimates sit at $0.66 per share on $34.43 billion in revenue. Sentiment is bullish with short interest rising ahead of the print.
- Dell Technologies (DELL): Reports Tuesday PM. Expected to post $2.48 per share on $27.15 billion revenue. Options markets are pricing in a potential 9.6% move.
- Zoom Video (ZM): Reports Monday PM. Consensus estimates are $1.44 per share. Stock has drifted higher recently with bullish investor sentiment.
- NIO Inc. (NIO): Reports Tuesday AM. Expected to post a loss of $0.24 per share despite a projected 22.5% year-over-year revenue increase.
- Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Reports Tuesday AM. Consensus is $2.14 per share. The stock has seen significant volatility, drifting lower by over 21% since its last report.
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Reports Tuesday PM. Analysts expect $0.05 per share on massive 167% revenue growth.
- Workday (WDAY): Reports Tuesday PM. Estimates are $2.17 per share. Short interest has surged 45% leading into the release.
