North American News
Stocks add to their woes with declines across the board
- Nasdaq remains the worst performer
The US stocks added to their woes today with declines across the board once again. The major indices closed lower for the 4th consecutive day. The Nasdaq is down -7.64% from the October 26 high. The S&P index is -4.91% from the November 1 high. The Dow is fairing the best with a decline fo -3.22% from its cycle high reached just yesterday.
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average fell -146.51 points or -0.46% at 32001.26
- S&P fell -39.80 points or -1.06% at 3719.85
- Nasdaq fell -181.85 points or -1.73% at 10342.95
- Russell 2000 fell -9.407% or -0.53% at 1779.72
In the after hours, Starbucks is reporting better-than-expected earnings:
- earnings-per-share $0.81 versus $0.72 expected
- revenues $8.41 billion which is higher than the $8.31 billion expected
- Starbucks shares are up 1.5%
Amgen earnings beat on both bottom and top line:
- EPS came in at $4.70 versus $4.44 expected
- Revenues were short of expectations at $6.65 billion versus $6.56 billion expected
Warner Bros. earnings came in much worse than expected:
- EPS $-0.95 versus expected $-0.21
- revenues nine $22 billion versus $10.36 billion expected
Coinbase earnings were worse than expectations:
- EPS $-2.43 versus $-2.40 expected
- revenues $590 million versus 654 million estimate
- transaction revenue came in at $366 million versus $480 million expected
- monthly users came in and 8.5 million which is 6% below last quarter
- Coinbase shares are down -0.9% sent
Doordash earnings came in mixed.
- EPS came in at $-0.77 versus $-0.60 expected
- Revenues $1.70 billion versus $1.63 billion expected
- door – shares are up 13.42%
Paypal beat on the top and bottom line:
- EPS $1.08 vs $0.96
- Revenue $6.85B vs $6.8B
- PayPal shares are trading at $67.72 after closing at $76.55. That’s down around -10.8%
Twillio earnings come in better but the outlook for Q4 is weak
- EPS comes in at $-0.27 versus $-0.36 estimate
- revenues come in at 983 million versus 972 million estimate
- company issues weak Q4 revenue outlook
Atlanta Fed GDPNow index rises to 3.6% from 2.6% last
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow index models the 4Q growth for US GDP
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.6 percent on November 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.9 percent and -1.3 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.74 percentage points to 0.62 percentage points.
US initial jobless claims 217K vs. 220K expected
- US initial jobless claims and continuing claims for the current week
- US initial jobless claims 217K vs. 220K estimate
- 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 218.75K vs. 219.25K last week (revised from 219K)
- Continuing claims 1.485M vs. 1.450M estimate. Last week unrevised at 1.438M
- 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.4175M vs. 1.3875M last week
- The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 22 were in New York (+1,726), Georgia (+1,301), New Jersey (+1,100), Pennsylvania (+1,062), and Illinois (+1,016),
- The largest decreases were in Missouri (-2,213), Florida (-2,004), Michigan (-804), Tennessee (-628), and Puerto Rico (-510).
Commodities
Silver climbs amidst a buoyant US Dollar
- Silver price trims some of Wednesday’s losses, despite high US Treasury yields.
- The XAGUSD daily chart depicts the precious metal as neutral-to-downward biased, with key resistance at $20.00.
- Short term, a break above $20.00 will open the door toward $21.00; otherwise, it would challenge $19.00.
Silver price recovered some ground on Thursday, even though the American Dollar is rising more than 0.70%, as shown by the US Dollar Index, underpinned by high US Treasury bond yields after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 bps. At the time of writing, the XAGUSD is trading at $19.50, above its opening price by 1.56%, after hitting a daily low of $18.84.
Silver Price Analysis (XAGUSD): Technical outlook
XAGUSD bias remains neutral-to-downward biased, even though it cleared the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $19.10 and is battling the 100-day EMA at $19.46. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in bullish territory suggesting the XAGUSD is headed upward, but a clear break above $20.00 is needed to shift the bias to neutral. On the flip side, if the XAGUSD closes below the 100-day EMA, a fall toward the 50-day EMA is on the cards, ahead of a $19.00 test.
The XAGUSD one-hour chart portrays a different picture, with the white metal bias as neutral-to-upwards. Nevertheless, it should be noted that XAGUSD price action shows a wide-trading range, spurred on a Fed day, turning the hourly EMAs almost flat, meaning that the XAGUSD is consolidating. Further confirmation was provided by the RSI being in bullish territory but nearly flat.
XAGUSD key resistance levels lie at $20.07, the November 2 high, followed by the October 7 daily high at $20.82, ahead of $21.00. On the flip side, the XAGUSD first support would be the 50-hour EMA at $19.45, followed by the confluence of the 100 and the 200-hour EMAs at $19.38, followed by the $19.00 figure.
WTI approaching the $88.00 area with upside moves capped at $89.00
- Oil prices retreat from the $90.00 area to levels near $88.00.
- A strong US dollar after Fed’s decision is weighing on crude prices.
- WTI faces a key resistance area at $90.00.
WTI Oil might have peaked right above $90 this week, as crude prices pulled back on Thursday, to pare gains after a two-day recovery. The West Texas Intermediate has depreciated about 2% so far today, weighed by the US dollar’s strength.
The US dollar surges after Fed’s decision
A soaring greenback has been pushing crude prices lower after Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision. The bank hiked rates by 0.75% as expected and confirmed its commitment to continue tightening borrowing costs.
Fed president, Jerome Powell surprised the market with a hawkish rhetoric at the press conference, where he refused the idea that the bank might have overtightened and suggested that interest rates may peak at levels above the market expectations. These remarks curbed investors’ expectations of a dovish pivot in December and sent the US dollar surging across the board.
US macroeconomic data, however, have not been particularly dollar-supportive on Thursday, especially the ISM services PMI, which has shown a weaker-than-expected increase on the sector’s activity in October, triggering a moderate pullback on the USD.
EU News
ECB’s Kazaks: 50-75 bp hikes are possible in December
- ECB Kazaks speaking
- 50 bps or 75 bps are possible in December
- Determining the terminal rate is impossible at the moment
Bailey: Shock to the economy from Ukraine war is greater than in the 1970s
- Bailey highlights downside risks
- nobody should read 75 basis points as a new norm for rate hikes
- some evidence that labor demand is beginning to slow
When you put it that way, the hopes for a soft landing sound ridiculous. Moreover, the UK government is two week away from rolling out tax hikes and austerity.
Other News
Former Pakistan PM shot in the leg in assassination attempt
- More political violence
Former Pakistani President Imran Khan was shot in the leg in an assassination attempt. The 70-year-old left office in April but remains active in politics and was hosting a rally when he was shot. Four others were reportedly injured as well.
Supposedly the attacker shot at him with a burst of automatic gunfire. Reports say he was killed.
Cryptocurrency News
Ethereum Classic price sprouts again as $546 million in trading volume comes in
- Ethereum Classic price back in the green – trades at $23.88 on Thursday after rebounding from $22.20.
- Traders are capitalizing on a falling wedge pattern to squeeze gains out of a possible 6% move to $24.86.
- A confluence resistance around $24.21 could invalidate ETC’s bullish breakout in favor of declines back to $22.20.
Ethereum Classic price is out of the red after collecting liquidity from the support between $22.00 and $23.00. Before this support area, the original Ethereum blockchain token sustained declines in the wake of its rejection from resistance slightly below $27.00. ETC now exchanges hands at $23.82 ahead of the American session on Thursday.
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