North American News
Major indices close near session highs
- Major indices is still lower on the week but cut into the declines
The major US stock indices closed sharply higher and near session highs. The major indices for the week still closed lower, but cut into those declines with the sharp gains today. Retail sales came in better-than-expected which helped. Industrial production was lower and Michigan consumer sentiment came in a little better than expectations and showed a lower inflation expectations for one and 5 years which was a relief to market traders.
All 11 sectors of the S&P index closed higher led by financials which rose 3.51%. Healthcare rose by 2.44% and communication services rose 2.14%.
The laggards in the S&P were utilities which rose 0.21%, consumer staples which rose 0.4%, and industrials which rose 1.58%.
The final numbers are showing:
- Dow industrial average rose 655.85 points or 2.14% at 31286.101
- S&P index rose 72.51 points or 1.91% at 3862.80
- NASDAQ index rose 201.25 points or 1.79% 11452.43
- Russell 2000 rose 36.86 points or 2.16% at 1744.37
For the trading week:
- Dow industrial average fell -0.17%
- S&P index fell -0.99%
- NASDAQ index fell -1.56%
US 10 year yields ending the week lower
- Floor at 2.9%. High yield at 3.10%
The US 10 year yield moved lower this week, helped by flow of funds out of the longer end as the yield curve between 2-10 year moved negative on expectations the Fed would be forced to tighten hard to halt inflation.
US July UMich prelim consumer sentiment 51.1 vs 49.9 expected
- Results of the July 2022 preliminary consumer sentiment survey
- Prior was 50.0
- Current conditions 57.1 vs 52.5 expected (prior was 53.8)
- Expectations 47.3 vs 47.0 expected (prior was 47.5) — lowest since 1980
- 1-year inflation expectations 5.2% vs 5.3% prior
- 5-10 year inflation expectations 2.8% vs 3.1% prior
Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2Q growth -1.5% vs -1.2% last
- Bullard does not believe it
Commodities
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trims losses but set to finish the week under $19.00
- Silver climbs and pares some of its weekly losses, but not enough to end the week higher; it is losing 3.37% in the week.
- University of Michigan inflation expectations tempered from around 3.1% to 2.8%; San Francisco Fed President Daly noticed.
- Money market futures illustrates that traders expect a Fed 75 bps rate hike in July and are pricing an additional 80 bps by year-end.
Silver (XAGUSD) is trimming some of Thursday’s losses late in the North American session but remains short of reclaiming the $19.00 barrier on Friday, despite taking advantage of a weaker US dollar, sliding 0.50% as portrayed by the US Dollar Index at 108.093, despite upbeat US economic data.
XAGUSD exchanges hands at $18.66, up 1.36% on Friday, in a calm session that witnessed the white metal dipping to $18.17, a fresh daily low, followed by a jump towards the daily high at $18.77.
Silver climbs but falters to conquer $19.00
Global equities are trading with gains, despite that the narrative of high inflation and recession fears is unchanged. US Retail sales advanced by 1% YoY in June, beating forecasts of 0.&. May’s figures were at -0.3%, displaying consumer’s resilience. Later, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July hit 51.1, exceeding estimations of 49.9 and higher than June’s 50. The UoM survey highlighted that inflation expectations over a 5-year projection were lower from 3.1% to 2.8%.
XAGUSD has also been bolstered by falling US Treasury yields. The US 10-year benchmark note yields 2.934%, down by three bps. Meanwhile, the US 2s-10s yield curve remains inverted for the ninth consecutive trading day, illustrating that investors remain pessimistic and are discounting a US recession.
Elsewhere, Fed officials crossed newswires. The St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it would not make any difference to hike 100 or 75 bps while adding that the pace could be adjusted for the rest of the year. Later, San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly said that inflation is too high, the US economy is strong, and the labor market remains solid. She added that the Univesity of Michigan inflation expectations were a “good thing” and that recession is not her base scenario.
Crude oil settles at $97.59 up $1.81 or 1.89%
- Volatile up and down week for the price of crude oil
The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $97.59 that’s up $1.91 or 1.89%
The high price today reached $99.01. The low prices at $94.59.
EU News
Major European indices close the day with solid gains
- Major indices lower on the day
The major European stock indices are closing the day with solid gains. A look at the closing levels shows
- German DAX, +245.06 points or 2.76% at 12864.71
- France’s CAC, +120.59 points or +2.04% at 6036.05
- UK’s FTSE 100 +119.2 points or 1.69% at 7159.01
- Spain’s Ibex +141.6 points or 1.81% at 7945.91
- Italy’s FTSE MIB +278.53 points or 1.84% at 20933
For the trading week the major indices are mostly lower:
- German DAX -1.16%
- France’s CAC, unchanged
- UK’s FTSE 100, -0.52%
- Spain’s Ibex, -1.89%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB -3.77%
Other News
Bullard: Doesn’t make much difference on 75 or 100 bps. Will leave to colleagues
- More from Bullard
- It doesn’t make too much difference to do 100 bps or 75 bps this month; can adjust over the rest of the year accordingly
- Fed has been trying not to do too much at once
- It’s a decision for the chair and the rest of my colleagues to make
- Our commitment to getting to 2% inflation is unconditional
- The right tactics for rate hikes are to be discussed at FOMC
- I take yield curve inversion seriously but I think this time is different
Cryptocurrency News
Two reasons why Shiba Inu’s SHIB price could crash lower
- Shiba Inu price shows a bounce off the 200 four-hour SMA at $0.0000098.
- SHIB could drop 15% if the immediate support level at $0.0000098 is breached.
- A flip of the $0.0000139 hurdle into a support floor will invalidate this bearish outlook.
Shiba Inu price has been sitting on a mine that could blow up in the bulls’ face if they trigger a premature rally. Investors need to be patient when trading SHIB as it could result in a whipsaw, putting traders out of their positions.
Shiba Inu price needs to undo knots
Shiba Inu price has been hovering above the high-time-frame support barrier at $0.0000098 for roughly three weeks and shows no signs of breaching it. Supporting the bulls here is the 200 four-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) that has served as a stable support floor.